***Breaking*** TSF is crashing the economy. GDP contracts by 0.3%

[DemocratSinceBirth]

[Walleye]

1. Magas will still believe the gaslighting

[Fiendish Thingy]

2. .03 isn't exactly crashing

But I’m guessing that is for Q1, and Q2 will be much worse.

[Joe Cool]

6. It is .3%, not .03%

[Fiendish Thingy]

8. Just quoting the OP

Either way, that alone doesn’t indicate “crashing”.

I expect Q2 to be far worse.

[Prairie Gates]

12. The common analysis at this point is that the drop was due to a 40% increase in imports

Import deductions accounted for a 5% swing. Now, obviously, the economy wasn't up 5% but for imports. But imports were up 40%. So, if the economy had been growing at around 2.4%, then it was probably even or a little up but for that big surge in imports. That's the reading we're hearing. So, I'm not really that convinced that it will be down a lot for Q2. Probably plodding along at 2% or so once imports stabilize.

[Fiendish Thingy]

14. Consumer confidence has dropped significantly

Layoffs are rolling out, and inflation will soon follow.

I think Q2 will definitely see a contraction in GDP larger than Q1.

[Prairie Gates]

15. Certainly possible

And you bring up some good points. I also think the government job cuts will start to really show and hit in Q2, so there are many other factors at play.

[getagrip_already]

16. inflation won't rise "officially", the numbers will cooked....

They will say whatever tsf tells them to say. There will be no more fact based statistics.

[Fiendish Thingy]

17. There are independent sources for info on price increases, job losses, hiring, etc.

They won’t be able to lie their way out of a recession.

[getagrip_already]

18. There are, but the source data they use are often gov statistics

They have been the most accurate and reliable in the past, so forecasters rely on them.

If you are referring to big financial firms like moody's or price, they are extremely susceptible to guv pressure. Their licenses depend on not pissing the admin off.

It will be a orange stained line, and they won't cross it.

[Bernardo de La Paz]

24. Overdone cynicism can blind a person to reality. The numbers are composites. Independent experts inspect all the data

Outside economists and analysts inspect the data minutely when it is released and compare it to data from other sources. Much of the data in the figure comes from outside sources.

If (a big if that I do not presume), ... if tRump tries to cook the data it will be immediately exposed and business will rebel because they depend on the figures. It would be a huge PR failure for the regime.

I'm not saying it couldn't happen, and I'm not saying I'm immune to indulging in anticipatory cynicism. I am saying that in this case anticipatory cynicism is a mistake. Keep your powder dry for actualities.

[allegorical oracle]

21. Don't trust the figures. Journalists are notoriously bad at math and get decimals

dismally confused. Words, maybe. Numbers, not so much.

[W_HAMILTON]

19. He single-handedly shaved off around three points in growth in about 60 days.

Debate semantics if you so choose, but that is downright terrible regardless of what you call it and the swift and entirely self-inflicted nature is something that hasn't been seen since -- I don't even know when. Certainly before my time, at least here in America.

[Fiendish Thingy]

20. It's not semantics, it's data

Indeed, Trump has had a clear negative impact on the economy, but to call the Q1 data “crashing” is hyperbole, especially when much worse is yet to come.

[Demovictory9]

3. Trump blames Biden

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/30/trump-gdp-tariffs-biden-overhang.html

[spanone]

9. The buck never stops anywhere near trmp.

[617Blue]

4. Get ready for it - "The Biden Recession."

[Joe Cool]

7. Right on time

Trump is saying he only took over on January 20, this is Biden's fault.

[617Blue]

10. I don't think it will fly

It you had asked me 4 months ago if a President could tank an economy in his first 100 days I'd have said no way. But he's actually done that and I think it's very clear to even the MAGA Wall St flunkies.

[Bernardo de La Paz]

25. The market was up considerably after election and before Inauguration. Down since. . . .nt

[Dennis Donovan]

5. NBC News: U.S. GDP declines 0.3% as imports surged ahead of Trump's tariffs

NBC News - U.S. GDP declines 0.3% as imports surged ahead of Trump's tariffs

Analysts noted that the weak economic report does not reflect overall consumer and business performance. Still, Trump’s tariffs shock has begun to rattle data.

April 30, 2025, 8:41 AM EDT / Updated April 30, 2025, 8:42 AM EDT
By Rob Wile

The U.S. economy contracted 0.3% in the first quarter of 2025, the first negative reading since the Covid pandemic, according to an initial measurement by the Commerce Department.

The decline was fueled by a massive surge in imports. Consumer spending, meanwhile, climbed 1.8%, the weakest pace since mid-2023.

Economists were expecting gross domestic product (GDP) to have advanced 0.4% for the first three months of 2025, compared with 2.4% in the fourth quarter of 2024.



Gross domestic product is the standard measure of a country’s economic growth. It is the sum of consumption, investment, government spending and the balance of trade, defined as exports minus imports.

/snip

[Johonny]

11. This just in, the bad economy you are experiencing

Is actually bad.

And it will likely get worse. We are in the salad days of Trumponimcs

[ClimateHawk]

26. Those 2022 numbers are not accurate.

They have been revised up since they were initially reported.

Q1 2022 = -1%
Q2 2022 = +0.3%

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/gdp-growth

[MichMan]

27. True, I forgot they revise them all the time.

Probably best to wait and see if these end up getting revised or not.

[roamer65]

22. Trumpcession 2025.

[RussBLib]

23. T-rump inherited a very good economy...

....TWICE! With all the sycophants and miscreants he surrounded himself with this time, the destruction is much faster.

Still kinda blows me away that the GOP is perfectly ok with destroying our democracy.

https://russblib.blogspot.com/?m=1