Why Trump Is Giving Putin Everything He Wants

[Nevilledog]

https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2025/04/trump-putin-ukraine-deal/682626/

No paywall link
https://archive.li/az3Rg

“Vladimir, STOP!” That Truth Social post by President Donald Trump put a fitting capstone on one of the least successful negotiations in recent memory.

For the past year or more, the conventional wisdom was that Vladimir Putin needed a deal on Ukraine. Russia’s economy was struggling under the weight of international sanctions, and its military had suffered staggering losses on the battlefield. Putin was supposed to be desperate for at least a pause in the fighting. That was one reason Trump claimed it would be a “very easy negotiation,” and that he could get the war “settled very fast.”

All that had to be done was to get Ukraine to back off its unrealistic demands for a return of all its territory, at which point Putin would seize the chance to buy time to repair his economy and replenish his troops and materiel. This was the assumption, not just of Trump and his advisers, but of a growing chorus of observers, including New York Times reporters and foreign-policy hands: A negotiated end of the war was the “only real viable option.” And in a negotiated settlement, as opposed to terms of surrender, both sides give up something. Ukraine would have to give up much, if not all, of the territory it had lost to Russian conquest, and in return, it would get some form of security guarantee against a future Russian attack. Surely Russia, desperate for a deal, would give up its opposition to such assurances. As The Washington Post’s Marc Thiessen put it just a month ago, “Russia is incredibly weak, both economically and militarily, which means that in these negotiations, Trump holds all the cards.”

How then to explain why Trump, after three months of negotiations, has failed to win a single concession from Putin and now threatens to “walk away” from the whole problem? If Putin is weak and desperate, and Trump holds all the cards, why is Putin getting everything he wants and giving up nothing in return? The answer tells us something about Trump, but more important, it gives us an insight into the nature of the new era we have entered in international affairs.

Trump’s advisers and supporters have been clear for more than a year about the shape of the deal they anticipated. No one denied the risk that Putin might accept a deal and then restart the war as soon as the world looked away. During the 2024 campaign, then-Senator J. D. Vance acknowledged that, even if Ukraine was not admitted to NATO, it had to have some kind of security guarantee so that “the Russians don’t invade again.” He called for a “heavily fortified” “demilitarized zone” between Russian and Ukrainian forces. Trump supporters also envisioned significant provisions of economic and military aid to a postwar Ukraine. Trump’s former secretary of state, Mike Pompeo, proposed $100 billion from a special NATO fund and $500 billion worth of “lend-lease” loans to purchase weaponry.

*snip*

[Fiendish Thingy]

1. I hope Ukraine signs a mineral rights/defence agreement with the EU

That includes deploying EU troops and equipment to Ukraine. EU troops can help defend against air strikes, artillery and drone attacks, and Ukrainians can fight to reclaim seized territory.

And there won’t be a thing Trump or Putin can say or do about it.

[Blue Owl]

2. Because he's always had Vladdy issues

[Nictuku]

3. Trump is so stupid

He could have made Putin beg - strengthen the sanction enforcement - added more sanctions, and give Ukraine what it needs to drive the Russian invaders Out. He would come out of this smelling like a (rose? I just can't go that far - he will never smell good with those diapers he wears).

Russia's economy is weak (sanctions would make it more so), there has bee a big Brain Drain with educated people leaving when the war started and Putin mobilized. They can't keep their airplanes maintained. They have lost so much military equipment to Ukraine's drones that they are using freaking scooters and golf carts to bring their soldiers to the front line for attacks. They are using freaking Donkeys to bring supplies. Seriously, it would have been so easy.

He could have been 'The Hero', instead, he is a patsy for Putin. Idiot.