About the Jobs report than boosted the Markets

[edhopper]

First, at 177,000 instead of the predicted 133,000 it is higher than expected. BUT it is still down from February and March. And down from both after they were adjusted downward.
I have no doubt this report will be adjusted down to near the predicted amount. And the job growth will continue to go down as the tariffs take their effect.
Their are more fools on Wall Street than people suspect.

[WSHazel]

1. Market is a bit more logical today

Whisper jobs number was 50,000 with a lot of groups, so even adjusting for the expected future reduction, today’s jobs report was still ok.

Today: Stocks up, bonds down, dollar down, international ETFs way up. Looks like capital is still migrating offshore, but there is some risk taking today.

I think this is what a good day in the market may look like going forward, which is really not that good.

[edhopper]

2. The articles I read said

expected number was 133,000, that they fooled themselves with that very low whisper number, then jumped when they found out they were wrong just shows how little they look at the real data and economy. We are in a recession and they won't accept that.

[WSHazel]

3. The "market analysis" stories are usually nonsense

Nothing in that jobs report was earth shattering either way, and because there was a big downside risk priced in, the market is up today. But the dollar is down and bonds are down, so don't read too much into it.

I spend my day talking to people in corporate finance, and I am meeting someone that works in capital markets this afternoon. NO ONE has any idea how to predict exactly what and when the damage will be from tariffs and, more importantly, the regulatory uncertainty Trump is creating. The reason no one knows exactly what will happen is because no elected government leader has done something this stupid in the last 90 years. Everyone just knows it will be bad. Brexit is the only thing even in the ballpark, and Trump's actions are much, much worse for the economy.

A lot of people also believe we are in a recession. I have made several posts in the last week that I can not figure out why assets moved the way they did from 4/21 through even today. It is like there is a lot more capital suddenly in the market, except the fund flows overseas are pretty obvious, so where did this new capital come from? Puzzling.

[Bernardo de La Paz]

5. As to the market the last two weeks, I read some analysis

It stated that the rise was due to a flood of amateur investors that surprised the pros. There is a lot of negative sentiment among the barely active investors, who mindlessly set their 401k at 60/40 stocks/bonds because their advisers automatically advise laziness (which is not bad advice for low-info long horizon types). But active amateurs love to "buy the dip". And some indicators where indicating oversold conditions. Today Cramer is saying he thinks there won't be a recession.

Too many pros and too many amateurs are tuning out the abnormality of the current situation and proceeding as if their indicators are nomrally applicable.

Steve Liesman was saying separately that this is not normal because the tariffs are a "supply shock", not the usual demand slowdown of usual recessions. He pointed to the 70s as the most recent example of a supply shock. Then the OPEC oil embargo was applied. That lead to stagflation as we know, and as we should be wary of now.

[Bernardo de La Paz]

4. There is some kind of two-month averaging adjustment that has been applied for years

I don't know the details, but adjustment of prior month data is common throughout the statistics reporting agencies and companies.

Some data collected by the agencies comes in late and some is found to be a mistake when double-checked as they do.

The reports are provided in a timely way, which is very important for business, but then the data is combed for accuracy for economists and by economists.

[edhopper]

6. Yes

I am not complaining the job reports is too high, I am saying investors should know it is probably too high and not buy on information they should know isn't accurate.
As Hazel said, we a most likely in a Recession, and the investor class acts like Trump is bringing us prosperity around the corner.

Me, I dumped out of equities in February.

[Bernardo de La Paz]

7. I got out a month earlier at a slightly lower level. You may have timed the top perfectly. . . . nt

[edhopper]

8. Almost

My wife and I discussed it and were going to call our financial person on Feb 20, but got caught up doing other things.
The next day when he made our move, the Dow dropped 800 points.
We still got out high compared to now, but that little extra gains we lost stung a little.
And of course in the coming months and years, we figure we saved a lot of downside. Meanwhile, all this upheaval is giving us 4%plus Treasuries.
I will have a big tax bill next year because it wasn't all IRA money, but again, take it now while it is there.