US down-ballot races in 2025 deserve close attention

[Nevilledog]

https://www.brookings.edu/articles/us-down-ballot-races-in-2025-deserve-close-attention/

As U.S. elections have come increasingly under threat in recent years— including from misinformation, unlawful certification refusals, and legislation that disenfranchises groups of voters—it is more vital than ever that state elections are able to run fairly and without interference. While much attention is paid to federal elections, less is given to the administration of so-called down-ballot races, such as state gubernatorial, legislative, and judicial elections. However, these and other state-level elections (including for other down-ballot offices such as attorneys general and secretaries of state) have a significant impact on the lives of everyday Americans.

Safe, free, and fair elections, including at the state level, are a critical pillar of a functioning American democracy.

In this article, we focus specifically on the down-ballot races for state legislature, governor, and supreme court that have taken and will take place in 2025, selecting those that are most critical to monitor for potential election subversion and for voter suppression. We limited the dataset to these most high-profile statewide elections because of their relative importance and therefore relatively increased susceptibility to subversion and suppression. We also included three other discrete races that met that threshold for the sake of completeness: the Lieutenant Governor races in New Jersey and Virginia, and the attorney general race in Virginia. With respect to election subversion, we selected races that could change the balance of power. With respect to voter suppression, we selected states that have passed new and suppressive legislation between 2021 and 2025 that remains in effect. We here follow Professor Lisa Marshall Manheim’s definition of election subversion as “the exploitation of a breakdown in the rule of law to install a candidate into elected office.” Voter suppression (creating access challenges to voting) is often considered the other side of the coin of election subversion, and we therefore separate the two here to highlight both complementary challenges.

In sections 1 and 2, we examine the 232 races for state legislature, governor, and supreme court in 2025 post-May 1 that have yet to take place across 15 states, including special elections.

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