Smelly election data: High numbers of Dems didn't vote for president at all???

[garybeck]

https://smartelections.us/dropoff

WHAT IS DROP-OFF? Drop-off is not a formal term, as far as we know. It refers to the difference between the votes for the President and the next down-ballot race. For this study, we calculated the drop-off, for the 2024 presidential election, both in raw numbers and in percentages for each major party (Democratic and Republican) for 17 states.

These percentages are vastly different on the Republican and Democratic side. The drop-off on the Republican side is very high - in some swing states it averages close to 10%. Meaning close to 10% of Republican Presidential voters did not vote for a Republican Senate candidate. In Ohio the Republican drop-off is over 10%. In Rockland County New York the Republican drop-off rate is 23%.

The Democratic drop-off by contrast is low in most states we examined and actually in negative territory in more than half of this data set. In Arizona, North Carolina and Ohio, the Democratic drop-off is -5%, or lower. That means that according to these results 5% or more of democratic leaning voters, chose to vote for the Democratic Senate candidate, but decided not to vote for the Democratic candidate for president. In Arizona for example there is an almost 16% spread between the Republican and the Democratic drop-off.

----- snip-----

If these numbers are real,
That is very strange and hard to believe--
That tons of Republicans voted for president only, tons of Democrats voted in other races and left the presidential vote blank.
Really?
And the real fishy thing is that it's only like that in the swing states.
What the actual fuck?
Tell me this data is wrong...? It's made up by someone looking for clickbait?
But don't tell me it's correct and there is some logical explanation that many Dems left the presidential vote blank and only in swing states.
Look at the charts on the site....

NEGATIVE DROPOFF ONLY FOR DEMS AND ONLY IN SWING STATES???

That smells like stinky fish to me.

People if this is real it requires further investigation.

[Blue Owl]

1. Imagine a convicted felon cheating... preposterous!

[stopdiggin]

2. I don't find markedly different voting behavior between Rs and Ds

to be terribly surprising at all (in general). For the rest of it - I'll be content to leave it to better minds, and better analysis ...

Will note however that a significant 'enthusiasm gap' has been pretty thoroughly identified (and discussed ?) for 24.

[ITAL]

4. Doesn't really surprise me either

There are a bunch of Trump voters that love him and don't seem to care about anything else on the ballot. I used to know someone who was in '16 and '20 (I didn't cut him out of my life or anything - he just moved a couple of years ago and I haven't heard from him in ages - he likely was in '24 too). I think Trump was the first candidate he pulled a lever for in several election cycles.

For people who voted for Democrats but not Harris -- I'd bet 90% of that would be due to Gaza given how much that issue seemed to tick off the 30 and under cohort. I saw more than my share of people who said they'd never vote for Biden or Harris since they were "enabling genocide."

[bearsfootball516]

9. I know two people who voted for Trump and left the rest of the ballot blank.

There really are a LOT of those people out there.

[garybeck]

12. I guess

They only live in swing states?
That part does not add up

[questionseverything]

14. And only four swing states....

[garybeck]

11. Uhh

That does not explain why the drop off votes are so different in the only the swing States and not in the other states.

[dchill]

23. Details, details.

[Qutzupalotl]

3. There is a lawsuit seeking a hand recount in a NY county

which of course is not a swing state. But if they discover discrepancies, perhaps other motions to recount can proceed.
https://www.democraticunderground.com/100220388920

[Farmer-Rick]

5. I call that enough evidence

For probable cause for an investigation.

But we all know the GOP has been stealing elections for the last 25 years. They are getting better at it. Soon they will have perfected it so that no evidence remains.

[BoRaGard]

6. Sniff, sniff - the stench of G.O.P. core corruption

Free clue for repubes who still like to think they are "Christians - Jesus would not do this evil shit.

[malaise]

7. I remain

Doubting malaise since that Tuesday in November

[tavernier]

18. I think we all doubted,

but of course we were quickly taken to task by the those who reprimanded us for doubting our voting system and acting like republicans, sour grapes and all that. I guess I wasn’t sufficiently shamed because I always suspected that eventually the lid of that box would pop open from the pressure of all the fat squirming venomous vipers inside.

[malaise]

19. You nailed it

eventually the lid of that box would pop open from the pressure of all the fat squirming venomous vipers inside.

Hope I’m alive when that box explodes and exposes the criminals.

[Emile]

8. I have no doubt in my mind, he cheated.

[Vinca]

10. She won. I just know she won.

[dchill]

13. I like the way you think, garybeck!

[live love laugh]

15. D'uh

[EdmondDantes_]

16. It's almost like candidates matter

Is anyone actually legitimately surprised that fewer people voted for the Republican candidate for governor who was a self described black nazi? Likewise Kari Lake in Arizona was a candidate who already lost and pulled the election fraud claim that wasn't believed.

And there were always going to be people upset with either the change from Biden to Harris in general or the lack of a primary, or that Harris was a clearly an unpopular candidate in 2020. While it's possible for a previously unpopular primary candidate later winning the presidency (Biden among them as his two previous primary campaigns didn't go anywhere), most weren't the sitting VP of a deeply unpopular president. Biden himself had a popular run as VP, the Trump mismanagement of covid, his absolutely compelling family story, and a great debate performance against Trump (building on the narrative of his performance against Paul Ryan).

[Marthe48]

17. This kind of data came up in 2004

I remember hearing about it, maybe Black Box, the Bev Harris site. Nothing came of it.

[karynnj]

20. Polling before the election showed that

the various Senate races were much better for us than the Presidential race. If the actual voting followed the polling, it would be seen as a big drop off.

[pinkstarburst]

21. I think it's far too easy to cheat with electronic voting

and votes need to be hand counted. Period.

I also think that there are lots of reasons people may have decided not to vote for Kamala and voted for the rest of the ticket. Racism. Sexism. Protest vote over Gaza.

We did not have a primary. That hurt us.

I knew people who were going door to door trying to get the word out for people to vote democrat. They did the same thing in 2020 for Biden. This time, they reported what they saw as a surprising shift towards Trump in the responses they were getting when they talked to people, especially from Black and Latino men. So while I was disappointed when I saw the results, I wasn't really surprised, because it matched what I had been hearing.

[yellow dahlia]

22. K & R