Private payroll growth in January misses expectations as market awaits official jobs data

[BlueWaveNeverEnd]

Average monthly private job creation
2024: 771,000/12 = 64,000
2025: 398,000/12 = 33,000
2026 starting out with 22,000 for january

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/private-payroll-growth-in-january-misses-expectations-as-market-awaits-official-jobs-data-133441723.html



Private payroll growth in January misses expectations as market awaits official jobs data
Private payrolls grew by just 22,000 in January, ADP said Wednesday.

US private employers added fewer positions than anticipated last month, according to the private payroll processor ADP, starting 2026 off on a downbeat note.

Private payrolls grew by just 22,000 in January, ADP said Wednesday, below economists' expectations of 45,000 positions.

The tally for last year was perhaps an omen.

"Job creation took a step back in 2025, with private employers adding 398,000 jobs, down from 771,000 in 2024," ADP chief economist Nela Richardson said in a statement. "While we've seen a continuous and dramatic slowdown in job creation for the past three years, wage growth has remained stable."

[Lovie777]

1. Oh joy...............

more failing news on the US economy.

But I hear the almighty dollar % went up about 1%.

[617Blue]

2. Whatever numbers BLS releases are just bogus and the GDP number is laughable.

The ADP numbers are much more reliable.

[Johnny2X2X]

3. BLS is still legit

When they start being corrupted we'll know right away as dedicated civil servants there will resign en masse. The data is the data and the people processing thew data are legit for now.

[617Blue]

4. You seem to know so I'll take your word for it. For now as you say.

[Johnny2X2X]

5. There's a poster here who used to work there

They'll say the same thing.

[Wiz Imp]

6. That's me. To be clear, I didn't work directly for BLS but rather worked in a state on the BLS programs

specifically the Current Employment Statistics (CES) program which measures the monthly jobs. We worked directly with BLS staff. And as you say, I can vouch for the continued validity of the data coming out of the CES program. I'm not going to go into the detailed explanation again, but suffice to say It will be obvious if/when the data ceases to be legit. Manipulating that data would be extremely difficult. It is far more likely that they simply stop publishing the monthly data.

Thank you for standing up for BLS. And BTW, the data released on Friday will include benchmark revisions for the past 2 years. Based on preliminary benchmark estimates released in September, March 1995 jobs estimate could be revised downward by close to a million. Subsequent months will be reduced as well. I expect the numbers will be very bad news for Trump.

[Johnny2X2X]

8. I thought they were delaying the release now

Due to the partial shutdown that occurred.

[Wiz Imp]

9. You're right. I didn't realize they delayed it by a couple days. Thanks!

It will be released on Wednesday, February 11.

https://www.bls.gov/bls/2025-lapse-revised-release-dates.htm

[Johnny2X2X]

10. Yeah, no reason to delay it

They just want to stall the bad news.

I think they'll just change it to quarterly reporting if things get too bad.

And a lot of the public just think all this is is just an economic indicator. The jobs report and other BLS reports are a lot more than just economic news, there's all sorts of impacts that people don't know about. Local and state governments often have actions that can be triggered by the BLS jobs or inflation reports. They can expand unemployment insurance and food aid when the BLS numbers trigger them to. There are corporations that use BLS data as input to strategies and investments.

Delaying these reports causes ripples, it creates risk for governments and business alike. If they ever start falsifying the data, the impacts could be catastrophic.

[Norbert]

7. Let the firing begin

The data is making Diaper Donnie look bad.