Iran is in the process of kicking the United States out of the Middle East and Europe will soon follow. Trump

[artemisia1]

telling Spain we can use their bases anyway, without their permission, is a good way to start the process of European nations shedding their American bases.

I predict that within 2-3 years, the U.S. military footprint throughout the globe will be deeply diminished.

[angrychair]

1. Holy shit

We are fucking screwed. This may be it.

[Captain Zero]

2. If we downsize the military, people like trump won't want to be president, maybe

nt

[fujiyamasan]

3. I don't think people in Dubai and the other gulf countries quite expected this

It’s been relatively stable and on the surface portrays itself as a safe and hospitable place for doing business (of course it’s basically built on slave labor).

But they can’t escape geography. I wouldn’t be surprised if their residents would want to cut a deal with Iran at some point to end this as quick as possible. At this point it’s clear that Iran just wants to make any country in the region friendly to US interests to experience hell.

It’s working with the stock market too. The oil disruptions are hitting Asian economies especially hard.

This was a war no one except for Israel wanted. I know some say the Saudis too, but I think this was mostly Israel.

[moonscape]

5. I agree with only Israel.

[yaesu]

4. I bet in 3 years fascist USA will be as impotent militarily as iran

And when we go begging to Israel for help after everyone else says screw you, Israel will say sorry suckers.

[Metaphorical]

6. It work both ways, however

The balance of power in the ME is now changing. The US is part of that equation, but so too is the relationship that countries have with Israel. Israel does not have the manufacturing infrastructure, especially supply chain infrastructure, to continue staying armed to the teeth - it is simply too small population wise - and as the presence of the US fades, so too will the ability of Israel to defend itself.

Yes, the US empire is being dismantled in real time right now. Several BIG consequences:
* The ability to project power will diminish rapidly. Kick the US out of Ankhara, out of Ramstein, out of the UK, out of Finland and so forth eventually means the US has no ports to deploy from, no airfields, no staging grounds. It becomes impotent militarily, which has always been its greatest strength on the world stage.
* The dollar as oil reserve currency is being decided right now, though it's been happening for a while. Technologically, there's no longer any real reason for it, but it stayed in force because the US had the military to back that up. Without that, there is no need for other countries to buy US financial instruments - stocks, bonds, treasuries, etc., which has largely propped up the stock market. We're going to see an eighty-year-old trade unwind in the next couple of years, and this is going to make it harder for the US to project power internally as well.
* We're seeing warning signs that the credit market is overly strained at this point, especially with respect to commercial real estate (CRE). Too many buildings are sitting empty because they are no longer needed in an increasingly virtual market, and this is beginning to look a lot like the financial crisis of 2008, but in commercial leases rather than residential mortgages. Combine this with an overhot AI market, and what appears on the horizon is a major depression that will likely spread globally.
* The US is already at least seven proto-countries, maybe more: Southwest, Northwest, Southeast, West Central, the Northeast, Inland Lakes and the Midlands. As the ability of the US to provide services to these regional countries fades (and the threat from a Federal government grows), this is going to lead to a point where one or more of those countries (most notably those on the West Coast) will decide that DC has become a parasite to be protected from, not a benevolent host that provides security.
* We keep hoping that the US will "revert" back to something sane post-Trump, but we also have to acknowledge that MAGA is a parasite, and sometimes extracting that parasite can kill the host. He could keel over tomorrow, but he could also be around for another decade, becoming more and more entrenched. That's what parasites do.

[raccoon]

11. Great post

[artemisia1]

12. Except that Iran has shown itself to be anything but militarily impotent... /nt

[xocetaceans]

7. I'm not for the war that Trump started, but your OP is a pretty rosy picture for Iran given that according to the . . .

. . . reporting in The Guardian:

US compares opening strikes to ‘shock and awe’ of Iraq war: what we know on day five of Iran conflict

US-Israeli attacks have killed at least 787 people in Iran, according to the Red Crescent Society; global markets spooked. What we know on day five of war

Guardian staff
Tue 3 Mar 2026 22.51 EST

The US military has claimed that the number of strikes carried out on Saturday in the first 24 hours of its war on Iran was nearly double that of the “shock-and-awe” strikes on Iraq in 2003, and that nearly 2,000 targets had been hit so far in Iran. Cooper also said the US was also sinking “all of the Iranian navy” and had already destroyed 17 Iranian ships.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/mar/04/us-israel-iran-war-update-latest-news-day-five

And by reporting in The Hindu, Sri Lanka just rescued 30 of 180 from a sinking Iranian frigate near Sri Lanka:

Sri Lanka rescues sailors from sinking Iranian ship
Herath said two Sri Lankan navy vessels and an aircraft were deployed for the rescue operation, but did not say what caused the Iranian warship to sink

March 04, 2026 12:39 pm IST - Colombo
AFP

Sri Lanka rescued 30 sailors aboard the Iranian frigate Iris Dena, which was sinking on Wednesday (March 4, 2026) just outside the island's territorial waters, Foreign Minister Vijitha Herath said.

No information was immediately available on the cause of the vessel's problems, but Herath told parliament that the injured sailors were taken to a hospital in the island's south.

The 180-crew frigate had issued a distress call at dawn.

...

https://www.thehindu.com/news/international/sri-lanka-rescues-sailors-from-sinking-iranian-ship/article70702468.ece

If anything, this is more likely to get worse with the talk of deploying soldiers to the region for combat. From PBS NewsHour, the following is from Sen. Blumenthal after a briefing:

If Iran succeeds in keeping the Strait of Hormuz closed or maintaining a credible threat to the shipping there, I don't think that there will be anything left for Trump to do in the face of economic ruin but to commit forces there fully, and Congress will probably begrudgingly go along with him. This all could play out before the fall elections.

But, yes, you are correct that the credibility of the US as an ally (with all of the threats that the Trump Admin/Regime has issued to our allies) has been greatly diminished: Spain, Greenland, Denmark, etc.

None of this should ever have been started.

As someone online noted, the GOP (in the last 35 years or so) does three things consistently when controlling the US government--they cut taxes for the wealthiest individuals and corporations; they wreck some aspect of the economy; and they start a war in the Middle East.

[Swede]

10. Sri Lanka is spitting distance from Diego Garcia.

This is not a coincidence, I'm thinking.

[xocetaceans]

15. Good point.

From Galle to Diego Garcia (according to Google Maps), the distance is 1,058.80 mi (1,703.97 km).

[artemisia1]

13. The U.S. did FAR more to North Vietnam. Yes, Iran is taking deep hits, but they are the only nation subjected to

the waging of aggressive war by the U.S. in this century that has been able to return fire accurately and with effect. Great effect.

[xocetaceans]

14. I don't doubt that you are correct and that is a possibility. I'm suggesting that this will be an extended sort of . . .

. . . engagement.

Arguably, the US has been involved in the Middle East for nearly 100 years:

THE STORY OF “ARAMCO”

In 1933, when Saudi Arabia allowed Standard Oil of California (SOCAL, now Chevron) to come in and explore, SOCAL assigned the job to a subsidiary it established, the California Arabian Standard Oil Company (CASOC). In 1936, the Texas Company (later Texaco) bought half of that subsidiary, and in 1944, the partnership renamed itself “Aramco.” In 1948, the predecessor companies of today’s ExxonMobil joined the partnership. This four-company consortium made up Aramco until 1980, when the Saudi government completed a gradual buyout of Aramco’s assets. In 1988, the successor com pany was established as the “Saudi Arabian Oil Company (Saudi Aramco)” to recognize both its binational history and its good reputation.

https://archive.aramcoworld.com/issue/200803/flash/75-facts/print.htm

This situation already relates to a much more significant national security concern than what occurred in SE Asia.

So, I am just reacting, I suppose, to how I took your "in the process ... soon" comment. To me, based on the history of the US in the region plus the extreme tolerance that seems to exist for friendship with the Saudis (alone, not even considering the Israelis), the "process" that you mention might take the next 75 years or until the US government (regardless of political party) is forced to acknowledge climate change and global warming as a threat and adapt. Even then, the region might be a solar power collection hub.

So, I don't doubt that this will likely be bloody, but now that the MAGA side of this country and Trump have started this war, I don't see them backing down in the face of losses. If the losses are too great and too sudden, that probably will have the opposite effect, and this will become a full-scale invasion. Again, that would only get bloodier and last longer.

We'll see. I don't know how this will go, but it should never have been started in the first place. One concern is that Trump just does what he wants: he might be unhinged enough actually to use nuclear weapons. He has no limit on bad ideas he is willing to try out unless the markets count as a sort of limit, but moderation seems to be an afterthought with him--after things start tanking. (Note his Covid-19 response, etc.)

[Whip-poor-will]

8. Living with magalomania

Then we'll be FORCED to use tactical nukes cause

[DFW]

9. It will take far more than Iran to do that.

Republicans, whether at Putin’s behest or not, will have to continue their seemingly unbroken efforts at weakening our country on the world stage for quite a while longer to accomplish that. This has to be one of the reasons for their relentless efforts to block voting rights back home. Interruptions, such as the Biden presidency, are serious hitches to their long-term plans.