General Discussion
Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsThere are 33 Senate seats up for reelection
We need at least 61 seats to ensure cloture on any Bill; to keep the child molesting motherfucker from naming any more judges; and to keep the likes of Fetterfuck from becoming the new Tugboat Joe.
I dont care if seats are in ruby red states, they need to be challenged, every single goddamn one of them.
Initech
(108,437 posts)Jersey Devil
(10,824 posts)difficult to convince donors that they aren't just throwing their money away on impossible candidacies. Sure we can field candidates in all the Senate races, but can they really be competitive without money?
Wiz Imp
(9,722 posts)The Democrats will without doubt try to win every possible Senate seat, but the odds of getting to 60 seats would be more than a trillion to one.
Current chances of Democrats winning the each of the current Republican Senate seats (as of 2 weeks ago):
https://www.racetothewh.com/senate/26#google_vignette
Idaho 1.3%
West Virginia 1.3%
Tennessee 1.4%
Oklahoma 1.5%
Wyoming 1.6%
Arkansas 1.9%
Alabama 2.1%
Louisiana 2.4%
South Dakota 3.1%
Mississippi 3.7%
Kentucky 4.0%
South Carolina 6.0%
Montana 8.1%
Kansas 15.9%
Florida 17.9%
Nebraska 23.3%
Iowa 25.9%
Texas 32.2%
Alaska 33.3%
Maine 54.5%
Ohio 64.4%
North Carolina 85.6%
Getting a simple majority is still an uphill battle. The thought of 60 seats is an insane fantasy.
Polybius
(21,782 posts)They have Ohio at 59.9% Dem, which I still think is high.
Simply put, we've meticulously analyzed each race using our battle-tested election forecast, and we're offering you straightforward insights free of charge. They are updated daily with the latest information and polling.
Track Record:
In 2022, we arguably had the best track record in the nation. While most forecasters were more confident that the GOP would have a strong midterm performance, we were one of only two forecasters to correctly anticipate that Democrats would break historic trends and hold on to the Senate.
We also called the highest number of individual Senate and Governor races correctly and came second in predicting the winner of the House race, trailing FiveThirtyEight by one seat.
Fiendish Thingy
(22,811 posts)(Assuming Fetterman is a loose cannon)
And, in 2029, we will still only need 51 seats to pass legislation reversing the damage from the Trump era, if we elect only senators willing to kill the filibuster (and expand the court).
Support for Killing the filibuster and expanding the court is my personal litmus test for any senate candidate who wants my financial support.
Wiz Imp
(9,722 posts)On the other hand:
https://ballsandstrikes.org/nominations/senate-democrats-trump-nominees-committee-votes/
Democrats on the Senate Judiciary Committee:
Sheldon Whitehouse (D-RI)
Amy Klobuchar (D-MN)
Chris Coons (D-DE)
Richard Blumenthal (D-CT)
Mazie Hirono (D-HI)
Cory Booker (D-NJ)
Alex Padilla (D-CA)
Peter Welch (D-VT)
Adam Schiff (D-CA)
Fiendish Thingy
(22,811 posts)Wiz Imp
(9,722 posts)There are lots of things to criticize Fetterman for. His votes on Trump's judges are not one of them. Yet he is the one person you singled out as the reason Democrats need at least 52 Senators as if Fetterman is voting for every Trump Judge when he's only voted for ONE, while people who voted for 8 or 9 were ignored.
Fiendish Thingy
(22,811 posts)Like todays war power vote.
He will be retired when his term ends in 2028, so he wont be able to sabotage the next Dem president.
Wiz Imp
(9,722 posts)But you chose to single him out on an issue where there are about 20 other Democrats more deserving of criticism.