Talarico leads both Cornyn and Paxton: Public Policy Poll

[applegrove]

Last edited Mon Mar 9, 2026, 09:09 PM - Edit history (1)

Talarico leads both Cornyn and Paxton

March 9, 2026 | pppadmin

https://www.publicpolicypolling.com/polls/39979/

Public Policy Polling’s newest Texas survey finds no meaningful difference in electability between John Cornyn and Ken Paxton. Cornyn trails James Talarico 44-43 and Paxton trails Talarico 47-45.

While Talarico is seen favorably by Texans (a +6 favorability at 41/35) Paxton and Cornyn are unpopular. Cornyn is more unpopular though. His net favorability is -28 (25/53) while Paxton’s is -24 (30/54).

Cornyn has a problem with the kind of lower propensity Trump voters who fueled the President’s huge win in Texas in 2024. 25% of Trump voters decline to vote for Cornyn in the general election, while only 19% of Trump voters decline to vote for Paxton in the general election.

Paxton has a 55/25 favorability rating with Trump voters in the general electorate, while Cornyn’s is 38/39. This suggests that anti Trump Republicans were critical to Cornyn’s first place finish in the primary on Tuesday.

And:

https://www.texaspublicopinionresearch.com/

[Doodley]

1. Factor in Trump's voter suppression and intimidation tactics and Republicans still win.

[displacedvermoter]

2. Very likely

[Stargleamer]

3. throw in vicious campaign ads against Talarico. . .

and the lying right-wing propaganda too pummeling Talarico.

They can't win without the voter suppression and the propaganda.

[mr715]

4. Don't lose hope.

The GOP has shot themselves in the foot before.

Whoever wins the GOP runoff will be wounded and would have spent money in expensive Texas markets.

We should consider this winnable.

[Boo1]

5. Very likely that Paxton and Cornyn

will hurt each other in the general regardless of which one is the eventual nominee. A lot of Paxton voters will have hated Cornyn long enough that they will stay home is he's the nominee.

[DFW]

6. Lots to consider here

First, Texas Republicans DO cheat. It’s why they are so strong in Texas, not because we all love them.

Second—what was the size of the poll sampling? Remember that widely celebrated poll that showed Crockett leading Talarico in the primary by something like 56-44? People were cheering and jubilating even though the poll sampled only 369 people in a state with 5,000,000 Democratic voters. That’s like going to Chernobyl, finding a rock that doesn’t make a Geiger Counter click, and then, based on that one rock, declaring the whole of Chernobyl free of contamination.

[applegrove]

7. I think I was guilty of putting up that poll.

[DFW]

8. I saw it on someone else's OP

Wishful thinking can be a powerful, and often highly misleading, influence. It is best consumed in very small doses, and consumed with a heavy dose of reality—never by itself.