The World Uses 103 Million Barrels Of Crude Oil Per Day

[gab13by13]

This week the world is producing 65 million barrels of crude oil per day.

Countries are using their strategic oil reserves to fill the gap.

The US just fired on and disabled 2 more Iranian oil tankers. The Kabuki peace negotiations are a joke, how many times can we be lied to that a deal is imminent just to calm the oil market?

Crude oil should be $150 - $200/barrel today.

[Lovie777]

1. stock market will make a killing.......

[AZJonnie]

2. Well, the pros with insider knowledge and the skills to leverage it will

In the end, overall the "stock market" will produce a lot of losers as a result of the energy supply stress (as well as other raw materials) caused by the attack on Iran.

[AZJonnie]

3. I could swear last I looked up that stat was not *that* long ago

And the number was closer to 80-85M. But even then, a 15-20M barrel/day shortfall should, as you say, pump prices into the range you're talking about. Also, I believe on the spot market, it is regularly hitting $200/barrel. Conversely, futures prices are generally what we see quoted in the news. But yeah, the market is living on borrowed time here, methinks. The longer the strait stays closed, the more likely a real explosion in the cost happens.

When that happens, the world is going to be at one another's throats. Which may be more of a "feature than a bug" as the saying goes.

[gab13by13]

4. I used a live global oil production counter for my daily number

https://www.oilproductionlive.com/global/

[AZJonnie]

5. Thanks. I have a bit of a bad memory when it comes to timeframes

Maybe it was COVID days when I last looked? So, wow, the world lately has been over 100 million a DAY lately? I didn't realize it had shot up so much even in that interval.

[Melon]

6. China won't likely hit peak oil for another few years

There consumption of oil is still growing and they are also building petrochemicals at a crazy rate. Well over consumption for many products. These are downstream from Naptha to propylene and ethylene. They are consuming more oil.

[AZJonnie]

7. That's not how the specific term "peak oil" is generally used, but I take your point (nt)

[nitpicked]

9. I based my own assessment on EIA's report

https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/report/global_oil.php

Which shows pre-conflict production/use of "global petroleum and other liquids" ((including LNG)) of around 105 miliion barrel/day, along with its estimate that nearly 20% of this was closed off to the "de facto closure" of the Strait of Hormuz. A 20% reduction of availability brings supply to around 84 million barrels/day, about the level in 2005-2006
https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w20355/w20355.pdf
which cites a figure of 73.6 million barrels/day as coming from field production ((of oil)), and most of the rest from LNG.

As I previously wrote,

If the world managed then ((in 2006)), what is the problem now?

Expectations have grown, even where the population has not. Available statistics suggest China had about 49.8 million vehicles on the road in 2006, vs an estimated 415 million by late 2022, while the population of 1.310 billion in 2005 rose only to 1.425 billion in 2022. World demands for power reliability and expansion have surged (Indians’ access to electricity went from about 68% in 2006 for est. 1.173B to over 99% in 2022 for 1.425B, roughly 50% increase in those “served”), as have desires for altered/improved living standards (everything from dietary changes to “the plastic we wear” to material acquisition), technological changes (including data centers) and so on.

COULD the world return to 2006 levels of petroleum usage? The “easy’ answer is “it would if it HAD to”. However, this would come with associated impacts, perhaps the reopening of idled/shuttered coal plants and so on.

In my opinion, the real question is, WOULD the needed reduction in usage occur without mandates such as the ones during COVID?

((I hope we don't have to find out the hard way if this drags on into heating season/the Southern Hemisphere's planting season))