Has Ukraine Turned the Tide? by Ryan Cooper

[justaprogressive]

https://prospect.org/2026/06/29/ukraine-russia-trump-turned-the-tide/]

When Donald Trump won the 2024 election, many Russian nationalists celebrated. The support provided by the Biden administration would be ended, and Russia would be able to stomp on a helpless Ukraine. Vladimir Putin’s war on the Ukrainian people, which Russian forces have carried out in the areas they occupied, through mass murder, rape, and kidnapping of Ukrainian children, could continue apace to a full obliteration of the nation.

Trump did indeed cut off aid to Ukraine. He and Vice President Vance hauled President Zelensky into the White House and berated him to his face. “You don’t have the cards,” blustered Trump.

But a funny thing happened on the way to the inevitable Russian triumph: Ukraine started racking up victories. Europe stepped up to make up most of the funding gap caused by Trump’s stab in the back, and Ukraine’s domestic military industry matured enough that it could make up much of the munitions gap. Ukrainian leaders have reformed and strengthened their military units, while Russia’s are crumbling under stupendous casualties and corruption. And the Ukrainian economy is holding, while the Russian one is starting to pop rivets.

While it is far too soon to declare victory to be inevitable, Ukraine now has a decisive upper hand. It’s a remarkable underdog story.

Ukrainian leaders have reformed and strengthened their military units, while Russia’s are crumbling under stupendous casualties and corruption.

A major aspect of this story is about drones and missiles. Ukrainian long-range precision missiles are not as good as American ones, but they are a lot cheaper, getting better fast, and critically, they do not come with American rules about where and how they can be used. Ukraine even developed a custom cruise missile, called the “Flamingo,” with a range of 3,000 kilometers, and an apparent cost of less than $1 million. The American Tomahawk, by contrast, costs about $2.5 million for just a 2,500-kilometer range, though it is more technically advanced.

But when it comes to drone manufacturing and especially operation, Ukraine is almost certainly the world leader. Fully 95 percent of Ukraine’s drones are now domestically manufactured—a staggering figure for a country that had only a tiny drone sector before the war—and Ukrainian drone operators are terrifyingly effective. Ukrainian firms now make so many that despite tens of thousands of drones being used up per month, there are enough left over for some exports. All sorts of nations, anxious that they are now behind the military curve, are beating a path to Kyiv, begging for training and buying up what drones are on the shelves—including the U.S., ironically.

[tanyev]

1. Someday I hope we can give Ukraine the thanks and appreciation they are due.

[orangecrush]

2. Kick

[Deuxcents]

3. Glory to Ukraine 🇺🇦

Literally baptized by fire but they never gave up. A remarkable underdog story, indeed!

[GreenEyedLefty]

4. Slava Ukraini!

Heroiam Slava!

I have never rooted so hard for an underdog as I have for Ukraine.

[PatSeg]

5. It is disappointing

that this isn't a bigger story. Trump tends to suck all the oxygen out of the room I guess.

[WarGamer]

6. Has ukraine taken back any territory?

[BannonsLiver]

8. There there.

[Mysterian]

9. As a "wargamer" you should know destroying the enemy army is more important than gaining territory

Perhaps your only military experience is with games.

[WarGamer]

10. Not really...

You're trying to talk about a war of attrition... but the Russian losses aren't at a level which causes them to change strategy or policy.

Russia is willing to feed the beast to maintain the status quo as is Ukraine...

Clearly, anyone who can comprehend what's going on knows that no one is currently winning

[Torchlight]

11. 30k Russian casualties/month cannot continue

the bodies are replaceable, the experience of unit commanders and section leaders is not.

[Mysterian]

12. I'm not "trying" anything, Sparky

Faced with overwhelming superiority in numbers, Ukraine is fighting a brilliant defensive strategy to destroy enemy forces and prevent the conquest of their nation. Russian losses are much higher than Ukraine's. Has Russia gained any significant territory in the past two years? Ukraine is winning with a strong and flexible defensive strategy. The Russian civilian populace is feeling the pain. Russia cannot sustain the huge losses interminably, anymore than they could conquer Ukraine in two weeks, as they previously believed.

[BannonsLiver]

13. I can feel the seethe and cope from here.

[Emrys]

16. But you evidently can't comprehend what's going on, so I suggest you wind your neck in.

For all the time I've been reading your DU posts, you've been insistent that your sources are superior to those of any other DUer's, but for someone who boasts a knowledge of strategy and whose sig line boldly reads "GOOD Du'ers don't propagandize other DU'ers" when you've been caught many a time spreading Putinite views and for some reason feeling driven to making sweeping predictions that almost never pan out, you seem pretty blinkered.

The state of the areas Russia claims as its own is very precarious, and morale is plunging even in Moscow. Crimea is largely without electricity and starved of fuel, and water supplies will grow increasingly scarce along with the other necessities of survival. That pattern is likely to spread to other areas and worsen where Russia's planted its flags, often in kamikazi runs which amount to just that - planting a flag, then either running away or being rapidly obliterated.

The status quo is simply unsustainable for Russia, and more and more of them are realizing that, even the Z-bloggers.

What use is pleasing the armchair-bound map addicts watching popcorn in hand as the lines move east and west when survival in contested areas is increasingly tenuous, let alone defence and warfighting?

One interesting development in the ever-growing fuel queues around Russia is that when they're not squabbling among themselves, Russians are having an unusual opportunity, in a country where large ungovernable gatherings are not encouraged, to spend their waiting time discussing the state of the country, and many are putting two and two together and not liking what their sums amount to. That's a front Putin is no doubt increasingly uneasy about, and won't show up on any map, though the only obvious state countermeasure so far has been issuing parking tickets to those stuck in queues.

[BannonsLiver]

14. Here's a sampling of errant predictions

1. Trump’s strategy in Iran was sound and Iranians will “rise up” and topple the regime. That was said at the start of the war.

2. Ukraine should surrender and hope for the best. That’s been said repeatedly over the years, although not so much anymore.

3. The Iranians would not be able to close the Strait.

Bonus takes:

- The Army’s 250 year anniversary parade last summer had “nothing to do with Trump”’. A personal fave.

- Democrats need to stop talking about Epstein.

[WarGamer]

15. Personal insults only... never daring to debate facts. Sad.

[Emrys]

17. Are you denying you made any such predictions and statements? n/t

[BannonsLiver]

18. Whats to debate? You missed badly on all of that stuff. Pointing that out isn't a personal insult.

[republianmushroom]

7. Hopefully they have.

Kick that Russian bears ass.