AK-SEN: Cook Political Report shifts the race to 'Tossup'.

[RandySF]

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Cook Political Report
@CookPolitical
The Alaska Senate race has already been teetering on the brink of the Toss Up column, and this week’s bad news for Republicans about the makeup of the ballot is enough to shift it into our most competitive category.

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@JessicaTaylor

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[Fiendish Thingy]

1. This is a BFD

Dems are expected to hold GA, NH, and MI.

NC is already rated lean Dem - that’s 48
OH is either toss up or Lean Dem - that’s 49
AK would be 50

That means Dems only need one seat out of ME, IA, TX to retake the senate.

[Tom Rinaldo]

2. You left out Nebraska, where the Independent running would caucus with us. n/t

[Fiendish Thingy]

3. Nebraska is still rated Likely Republican, IIRC

But that is a shift from Safe Republican, so it’s moving in the right direction.

By November, who knows?

[Renew Deal]

5. Probably two to account for Fetterman

[0rganism]

6. Need to hit 52 to pay the Fetterman tax

At 51 D, he becomes the most powerful and unreliable person in the senate, we might as well skip the pretending and just have him as majority leader if 51 happens.

[Fiendish Thingy]

8. Yes that is true

But only until 2029, when Fetterman will be forcibly retired by the voters of Pennsylvania.

Then we will only need to 51 votes to kill the filibuster and expand the court.

Keep that in mind for the remaining senate primaries this year, and in 2028.

[WarGamer]

7. Assuming Fetterman stays put and I have ZERO confidence in that.

[Renew Deal]

4. Dems have a good candidate in a strong cycle for Dems