New Ballotpedia analysis finds 13 state legislative supermajorities exposed to breaking this year
In eight states holding legislative elections this year, fewer than 5% of seats would need to change party control to break an existing supermajority. We call those state supermajorities highly exposed to breaking. If a majority party loses its supermajority, they lose the ability to override a governor's veto without votes from the minority party.
The Republican supermajority in Florida is the closest to breaking, where a one-seat loss in the Senate would bring the party's majority below the 27-seat threshold required to override the governor’s vetoes.
Ballotpedia assessed the possibility that existing state legislative supermajorities could be broken and the potential for new supermajorities to form in the 2026 elections. According to this analysis, 13 state legislative supermajorities are exposed to breaking in the 2026 elections, including the eight rated highly exposed. Democrats are defending five exposed supermajorities and Republicans are defending eight.
The analysis scored each chamber individually by assessing the percentage and raw number of seats that would have to change party control for a supermajority to be gained or lost in the chamber. There are currently 27 state legislative supermajorities: 19 Republican supermajorities and eight Democratic supermajorities. The remaining 23 states have no supermajority.
https://news.ballotpedia.org/2026/06/30/new-ballotpedia-analysis-finds-13-state-legislative-supermajorities-exposed-to-breaking-this-year/
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