Democrats Leading In Arizona Primary Turnout
I have seen a source say that Democrats are leading in turnout in Arizona. This is the first time this has ever happened in modern history. Even though Arizona is a purple state, because it was once a solid red state, it has a significan partisan Republican registration edge. Also its primaries are semi-closed with independents having low turnout despite being eligible to vote.
Even though the Election Day votes are redder, the Republicans are expected to be close to losing the primary vote. Even if they still win overall, that would be a loss because we have seen Republicans get more primary votes in Arizona but still lose the state such as in 2022. This is despite this year being the first time
We have been seeing 10-20 point swings in states across the country in primaries and special elections. The primary turnouts do not necessarily predict, but they do often predict turnout edges when factoring in primary-specific factors like races contested for either party. And Democrats also got 20+ point swings in the two swing states that held special elections under low turnout environments in
November 2025 (Georgia) and April 2026 (Wisconsin).
So if you live in Arizona, know that there is a primary, research the candidates and vote. (Also for Michiganders, get out the vote for Abdul Sayed in Michigan to keep the ideological blue wave going too.)
Link to tweet
?s=20