UK Local elections on 1st May 2025

[T_i_B]

It's that time of year when we have local government elections. Although this year there is notably less elections on than usual. Here in Sheffield where I live it's a fallow year, so no local elections until next year. There are council election taking place in neighbouring Derbyshire, but those were nearly postponed.

Please feel free to post about what elections are on in your area, and how you expect the respective parties to perform. Sadly, I expect that Reform will have some success but beyond that I couldn't say.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cd925jk27k0o

On Thursday 1 May elections will be held for 23 councils and six mayors in England.

Around a third of electors in England are eligible to vote, and more than 1,600 councillors will be elected.

In some parts of England, local elections have been postponed because the government is planning to reorganise local councils.

[T_i_B]

1. Election week kick

Sadly, I expect the Lincolnshire mayoral contest to be the main story. Where Reform look likely to win with Andrea Jenkyns.

One of the worst, most unashamedly obnoxious Tory MP's during the last parliament. And after spending her time in parliament playing the Yorkshire card for all her worth there are now some serious questions about her brazen carpetbagging Lincolnshire!

[LeftishBrit]

2. Really scared of Deform making inroads

[T_i_B]

4. If they win control of any councils

Expect them to make an absolute horlicks of running them.

Saw this a few years back when a bunch of them took over the local parish council here posing as independents. The whole thing soon descended into "people's front of Judea" style infighting.

[muriel_volestrangler]

3. Also a by-election in Runcorn and Helsby (where Fightin' Mike Amesbury was the Labour MP)

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2024/uk/constituencies/E14001455

He got 52.9% in the 2024 GE; Reform 18.1%, Tories 16% (and with Lib Dem, Liberal and SDP candidates (with the same 2 standing for the latter 2 in the by-election) - I wonder if there's some personal feud that dates back to the merger 37 years ago?). But apparently the Tories have given up, so Reform has a chance:

There is also a byelection on Thursday, in Runcorn and Helsby, where Labour had a majority of almost 15,000 at the last election. The constituency is counting overnight, which means that on Friday morning, when a lot of the local election results won’t yet be in (many councils count on the Friday, not overnight, because it is easier), the election night narrative will be determined largely by the Runcorn result. Reform UK hope they can win, and that would be a formidable show of strength (even though parties that pull off amazing byelection victories don’t normally perform so well at general elections). Given what has happened to the Westminster expectations thermometer, even a narrow Labour win would be a good result for Keir Starmer.

And the Conservatives? According to Labour, they have given up totally in the seat. This is what Ellie Reeves, Labour’s chair, told HuffPost UK.

The Tories aren’t doing anything. [Tory MP] Esther McVey basically said the Tories should sit it out and let Reform win, and we’re seeing that on the ground.

They’re not doing any work on the ground at all, it looks like they’re just gifting it to Reform.

Reeves, of course, has got an incentive to maximise the ‘Keep Reform out’ vote in Runcorn. But that does not mean she’s wrong, and it would be surprising if she is. The Tories wrote off their chances in this seat some time ago, and it would make sense for them to deploy campaign resources elsewhere.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2025/apr/29/labour-tory-reform-lib-dem-local-elections-kemi-badenoch-nigel-farage-keir-starmer-uk-politics-latest-live-news?CMP=share_btn_url&page=with%3Ablock-681079f28f082de087ab9b8c#block-681079f28f082de087ab9b8c

[muriel_volestrangler]

5. Well, nearly all results in now, and, fuck, Reform has dominated

Currently:
Reform 611 councillors (+611)
Lib Dem 358 (+153)
Con 290 (-610)
Labour 87 (-170)
Green 74 (+42)

Reform control 7 of the councils up for election; Lib Dems 3; and the Tories lost control of 13. And of course Reform won the by election by just 6 votes.

Labour equals worst projected national share score while Tories score party's lowest-ever

This is the first time that a party other than Conservatives or Labour have been ahead in the projected national vote share calculation - and Reform's estimated 30% is well above the 23% that Ukip scored at the height of its popularity in 2013.

Labour's tally equals its lowest previous recorded performance in 2009, while the Conservative estimate is the party's lowest-ever recorded.

This is the first time that the combined share of the vote for Conservative and Labour has been below 50%, underlining, as I reported earlier, the fragmentation of British politics in these elections.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/c39jedewxp8t?post=asset%3Af2c59447-d2a8-4f46-b680-ff7e2b86ca79#post

[T_i_B]

6. Bad for Labour, catastrophic for the Tories

The Tories have no answer to Fromage & Co and the result is that Reform are pinching their voters. A lot of those County Council seats are traditionally rock solid Tory. Kemi Badenoch has failed to lead the right wing of British politics and now she's paying a price for that.

Labour need to wake up, stop appeasing the far right and maybe start trying to engage more with voters.

Lib Dems made modest gains, usually where they campaigned hard. In my opinion the Lib Dems need more of a vision in order to do better.

The obnoxious Andrea Jenkyns won in Lincolnshire. That's going to be a complete disaster.

Doncaster managed to dodge a bullet for once.

Likewise for the county councils Reform has won. Councils like Derbyshire have a lot of financial issues, as well as a lot of statutory duties they can't legally wiggle out of.

GB News gobshite Darren Grimes has been elected to Durham County Council. That's a sticky situation that's going to leave a lot of voters feeling very salty.

In more positive news, a good friend has also won election to Oxfordshire County Council as a Liberal Democrat!

Obviously, there's going to be some scandals and gaffes ahead for Reform. And don't be surprised at all if a lot of these newly elected Reform types end up falling out with each other.

But overall, depressing. The right wing of British politics continues to move from pragmatism to petulance. And somehow they keep getting rewarded for bad behaviour.

[muriel_volestrangler]

7. Labour mayor for Doncaster, but Reform-controlled council

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/c39jedewxp8t?post=asset%3A2f9f1f43-8cc4-4ff1-9acb-b0104346b32c#post

(29 out of 55 seats so far, with only 37 declared - so even allowing for the likely defection/resignation or two by Reform councillors who turn out to be wrong'uns, they'll keep control)

A protest vote, for sure - Lib Dems gaining seats, because they're Not Labour, but only modestly - and the projected national share has Reform as the only gainer. Ugh.

[T_i_B]

8. Doncaster has a history of dysfunctional local government

I don't see Reform as a solution. Quite the opposite in fact.

It's quite depressing to think that if this weren't a fallow year, I would most likely be looking at Reform councillors where I live. And I live near to Barnsley, which is already a major Reform target as it is!