What happens when environmental change outpaces life's ability to adapt?
https://news.mit.edu/2026/when-environmental-change-outpaces-life-ability-to-adapt-0624A new model links Earths mass extinctions to mismatches between rates of environmental change and biological adaptation.
Jennifer Chu | MIT News
Publication Date:June 24, 2026
When an animals environment changes faster than the animal can adapt, its chances of survival can flat-line. The same is true for populations, and even entire species.
Finding a mismatch
For their new study, the researchers looked to test the rate mismatch hypothesis at the global scale. They wanted to see whether mass extinction events in history can be explained by a mismatch between the rate of global environmental change and the rate at which life around the world can adapt.
In the end, Rothman and Petrovskii observed that indeed, for almost every mass extinction event in the last 450 million years, there was a mismatch in the rates at which the environment changed and at which animals could adapt; mass extinctions occurred when a significant fraction of animals could not adapt fast enough to match the changing environment. Their results confirm that the rate mismatch hypothesis applies at the global scale.
Whats more, this mismatch in rates could predict the severity of extinction events, or the fraction of animal life that went extinct given the rate at which the environment changed.
1. Rothman, D. H. & Petrovskii, S. Relating Rates of Global Change, Evolutionary Adaptation, and Extinction.
Phys. Rev. Lett. 136, 254201 (2026).
https://doi.org/10.1103/62jn-xgqy