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As "Super El Nino" Draws Global Attention, New Study Shows the Indian Ocean May Hold the Key to Mediterranean Climate Ex
https://en.huji.ac.il/news/super-el-ni%C3%B1o-draws-global-attention-new-study-shows-indian-ocean-may-hold-keyAs "Super El Niño" Draws Global Attention, New Study Shows the Indian Ocean May Hold the Key to Mediterranean Climate Extremes
13 July, 2026
While the world watches the Pacific for signs of a possible "Super El Niño," new research suggests another tropical ocean may hold important clues to future climate extremes. Scientists have discovered that temperature patterns in the Indian Ocean can influence prolonged winter dry spells in the Eastern Mediterranean months in advance by reshaping large-scale atmospheric circulation. The findings reveal how distant ocean conditions can affect weather thousands of kilometers away and could improve seasonal forecasting of drought risk in one of the world's most water-stressed regions.
…
The study, published in Atmospheric Research, was carried out by Phd. Student Victor Murphy and Dr. Assaf Hochman of the Institute of Earth Sciences at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem and Dr. Sigalit Berkovic of the Israel Institute for Biological Research. The researchers investigated how the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), a recurring pattern of warming and cooling across the tropical Indian Ocean, affects prolonged winter dry spells in the Levant, one of the world's most water-stressed regions.
Persistent winter dry spells can last for weeks, threatening water supplies, agriculture, and ecosystems across Israel and neighboring countries. Yet forecasting these events has remained notoriously difficult.
By analyzing more than seven decades of climate observations and atmospheric data, the researchers discovered that positive phases of the Indian Ocean Dipole are linked to large-scale shifts in atmospheric circulation stretching from the Indian Ocean across Eurasia into the Eastern Mediterranean. These shifts favor stable high-pressure systems that suppress rainfall and increase the likelihood of prolonged winter dry spells. The study also found that conditions in the Indian Ocean during December are associated with an increased chance of especially long dry spells later in the winter, highlighting the potential for improved seasonal forecasting.
…
Berkovic, S., Murphy, V. & Hochman, A. Unraveling the variability of winter persistent dry spells in the levant via the Indian Ocean dipole. Atmospheric Research 342, 109198 (2026).
13 July, 2026
While the world watches the Pacific for signs of a possible "Super El Niño," new research suggests another tropical ocean may hold important clues to future climate extremes. Scientists have discovered that temperature patterns in the Indian Ocean can influence prolonged winter dry spells in the Eastern Mediterranean months in advance by reshaping large-scale atmospheric circulation. The findings reveal how distant ocean conditions can affect weather thousands of kilometers away and could improve seasonal forecasting of drought risk in one of the world's most water-stressed regions.
…
The study, published in Atmospheric Research, was carried out by Phd. Student Victor Murphy and Dr. Assaf Hochman of the Institute of Earth Sciences at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem and Dr. Sigalit Berkovic of the Israel Institute for Biological Research. The researchers investigated how the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), a recurring pattern of warming and cooling across the tropical Indian Ocean, affects prolonged winter dry spells in the Levant, one of the world's most water-stressed regions.
Persistent winter dry spells can last for weeks, threatening water supplies, agriculture, and ecosystems across Israel and neighboring countries. Yet forecasting these events has remained notoriously difficult.
By analyzing more than seven decades of climate observations and atmospheric data, the researchers discovered that positive phases of the Indian Ocean Dipole are linked to large-scale shifts in atmospheric circulation stretching from the Indian Ocean across Eurasia into the Eastern Mediterranean. These shifts favor stable high-pressure systems that suppress rainfall and increase the likelihood of prolonged winter dry spells. The study also found that conditions in the Indian Ocean during December are associated with an increased chance of especially long dry spells later in the winter, highlighting the potential for improved seasonal forecasting.
…
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2026.109198
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