Why Trump's Venezuela oil gamble won't pay off

[paleotn]

As usual, it's all about the money. But not in the way we normally think of that. Money is complicated. You want to get invested money back eventually, plus some extra for your trouble. A return. Otherwise, it's better to just keep it in your proverbial mattress. That isn't happening in Venezuela for a number of reasons. Of course, that would have taken considerable forethought and planning. The demented old fool was never, ever known for that. And that's how he bankrupted casinos multiple times.

[Bmoboy]

1. Spoiled children want instant gratification

Infrastructure plan in a week
New Healthcare plan in a week
New ballroom any day now

Screw the facts. I want it now!

[ChicagoTeamster]

2. He ripped off the casinos before he bankrupted them. He'll do the same with the Venezuela oil money.

After he's gone and the damage is done, the American people and the Venezuelan people, and the Oil Companies who fell for his lies, will be out the money that his grifting spawn will have shuffled off to other accounts.

[paleotn]

3. Actually, he got creamed financially.

He's had a habit of doing that. So much so that pre-2016, only some very shady guys at Deutsche and a mid sized US bank few have ever heard of would even do business with him. And why he's blown all the money Daddy gave him years ago. Ended up resorting to money laundering and some half ass reality TV show, or so the stories go. We do tend to credit him with more credit than he's due. He's a failed upward kind of guy. For some bizarre reason the goddess of fate smiled on him. She does that sometimes. I wish she'd stop.

[ChicagoTeamster]

5. I thought his dad bought chips from the casino to give him millions

The chips were never used and he never paid inheritance tax on it. And, after the casinos were up and running he paid himself exorbitant fees on top of his salary which is how he and his brood bilked his real estate businesses claiming losses and minimizing taxes.

[Pluvious]

4. Dang, I just saw this... Sorry for the dupe.

My comments on this (copied from my post) :

There are three main points that make the notion of exporting Venezuelan oil to the United States quite senseless

The first point is that currently the United States is a net exporter of oil because we have somewhat of a glut

The second point is that the quality of the oil from Venezuela is very inferior, and expensive to properly refine, and is quite dirty to the environment

The third point is that we continue to increase more of our energy generation from green sources, and it seems to me that the demand for oil will continue to decline into the future

As explained in this video, it would take about $80 a barrel for Venezuelan oil to be profitable after a sustained period of over 10 years. Currently the value of oil from Venezuela is approximately around $45 a barrel, assuming there were no logistic issues with it being transported

From the description:

234,608 views Jan 9, 2026 Economist Podcasts
Has Trump just pulled off the most brazen oil heist in history? Vijay Vaitheeswaran, The Economist’s Global Energy and Climate Innovation Editor talks to Ethan Wu and Mike Bird, co-hosts of The Money Talks podcast, about why America might never benefit from Venezuela’s vast oil reserves.

00:00 – Why Venezuela’s vast oil reserves are so difficult to use
02:29 – Heavy vs light crude: why Venezuelan oil is different
04:38 – Why big oil won’t invest in Venezuela again
06:23 – What oil prices would make Venezuela viable
08:41 – Why this oil strategy feels outdated today

Listen to the full episode: https://econ.st/4sxjAVK
How the Pentagon snatched Nicolás Maduro: https://econ.st/4hv0wlY
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