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liberalla

(10,552 posts)
Thu Jun 19, 2025, 06:43 PM Thursday

She Won, Part III: The Devil Is In The Data [View all]

Last edited Thu Jun 19, 2025, 07:24 PM - Edit history (1)


88 counties flipped red. None flipped blue. Trump swept every swing state—each just above the mandatory recount thresholds. What are the odds? About one in never.

She Won, Part III: The Devil Is In The Data

Darkness Our Old Friend


Watching the results roll in on election night, we can probably all agree—our collective gut was telling us something was just… off. Kornacki wasn’t nacki-ing, the blue wave never appeared, and a familiar dread—reminiscent of 2016—began to creep in. But this time was different. This time, we knew.

Between 2020 and 2021, Trump’s allies illegally breached voting equipment in Michigan, Pennsylvania, Georgia, Colorado, and Arizona. And thanks to a Federalist Society-led appeals court in Georgia, “Teflon Don” got away with breaking the law—again.

At 9:32 p.m. on November 5, Elon Musk preemptively declared victory with a cryptic tweet: “Game, set, match.” Thirty minutes later, Ted Cruz’s smug face squatted on the nation’s screens like he was claiming a throne. Many went to bed discouraged that night. But some of us? We went to bed determined.

Because if you’ve never been to Texas, let’s get one thing straight: everyone hates Ted Cruz.

So, we got to work.


When The Math Ain’t Mathing...

OK, now they dive into the numbers. The nitty gritty data, statistics, graphs, experts, etc.


Read on here:
https://thiswillhold.substack.com/p/she-won-part-iii-the-devil-is-in



_______________________________________________________

Part I: She Won. They Didn't Just Change the Machines. They Rewired the Election.
https://www.democraticunderground.com/100220411342

Part II: She Won, Part II: Seven Judges. Direct-to-Cell Satellites. A Hijacked Election.
https://democraticunderground.com/100220412804
__________________________________________________________


*** I am adding info from Election Truth Alliance

The ETA is specifically calling for a hand audit of paper voting records. This would be a non-routine review of paper voting records for the purpose of determining whether votes were counted correctly.

"it’s NOT too late to do widespread hand audits of the results"


Check out the Audit Advocacy Toolkit from ETA (https://electiontruthalliance.org/audit-advocacy-toolkit)
for detailed information, resources and specific steps you can take to push these hand audits forward.
They have a downloadable pdf file to assist you.

ETA is working hard on this and there's much more on their website. They also have a youtube channel.
66 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
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Trump's 'win' was a statistical improbability pfitz59 Thursday #1
not in multiple swing states and even in a few national polls Celerity Thursday #11
Polls were extraordinarily close. Many within the margin of error.... paleotn Thursday #22
Basically the entire country shifted red at the presidential level EdmondDantes_ Thursday #45
Not a false impression at all.... paleotn 17 hrs ago #62
That still shows that harris should have won at least two or three Tribetime Thursday #25
Not really fujiyamasan 16 hrs ago #64
I could accept Harris losing given the last-minute campaign, but valleyrogue 20 hrs ago #61
Kick SheltieLover Thursday #2
Our gut feelings match the real math. yellow dahlia Thursday #3
So all 88 swing counties going red, and winning all 7 swing states outside the recount margin? questionseverything Thursday #4
The assumptions made to come up with that figure are ridiculous Wiz Imp Thursday #14
Could you give us a couple of specific examples to help us sort this out? Thanks. TheRickles Thursday #15
Unless they show exactly how they calculated that probability-- and all the input data LymphocyteLover Thursday #20
The article at the link describes their calculations: if 88 counties all flipped in one direction TheRickles Thursday #31
You can't just look at those that flipped. Wiz Imp Thursday #37
But why didn't any counties flip in the other direction? That is the key question. TheRickles Thursday #39
Because 90% of counties across the country went more red in 2024 than in 2020 EdmondDantes_ Thursday #46
Thank you for providing an actual answer: 90% of counties went redder. TheRickles Thursday #47
Most areas went more for Trump than in 2020. Wiz Imp Thursday #49
OK thanks. But the 50-50 toss-up is a big assumption for every state LymphocyteLover Thursday #53
Zero evidence? Fiendish Thingy Thursday #18
Here's the thing - I am actually open to believing that the election wasn't 100% fair Wiz Imp Thursday #29
They use their names, the data they use is from government reports questionseverything Thursday #28
They use their names? This Will Hold is somebody's name? Wiz Imp Thursday #34
Denial is a powerful coping mechanism, and part of grieving a loss Fiendish Thingy Thursday #5
Just curious, are you an American citizen questionseverything Thursday #7
I'm an American citizen and I agree with them Wiz Imp Thursday #13
Dual citizen Fiendish Thingy Thursday #17
Where do you vote? questionseverything Thursday #24
Nanaimo BC. Nt Fiendish Thingy Thursday #27
I've gotta ask this question. bluestarone Thursday #6
They aren't "findings", they are theories Fiendish Thingy Thursday #32
Harris/Walz won Clouds Passing Thursday #8
You convinced me. Congratulations! What a great argument you present! Wiz Imp Thursday #38
I'm not a lawyer, never was a debator. I read the evidence. Clouds Passing Thursday #44
Thanx for posting this Botany Thursday #9
A lot of Democratic voters were unhappy with the way Biden was treated Bluestocking Thursday #10
Many did vote but Peter Thiel's Palantir was running a clean up operation that would hide any evidence of .. Botany Thursday #12
This message was self-deleted by its author fujiyamasan 16 hrs ago #65
This message was self-deleted by its author fujiyamasan 16 hrs ago #66
Unless someone includes how many full paper recounts were done in US, ... Festivito Thursday #16
I can't believe any of this if it's only from a substack source. There have to be other sources. The Marc Elias Group ancianita Thursday #19
Elias is a lawyer, not a computer technician questionseverything Thursday #30
His firm is also litigating 55 cases. chowder66 Thursday #41
Elias is an incredible player in this fight for democracy questionseverything Thursday #42
Indeed he is. chowder66 Thursday #50
Why are some people Hornedfrog2000 Thursday #21
Bookmark TY Cha Thursday #23
i'm not a math person but et tu Thursday #26
Eloon and T💩p told on themselves repeatedly. In public. OMGWTF 21 hrs ago #55
Cant wait for obnoxiousdrunk Thursday #33
Certainly worth pursuing. oasis Thursday #35
K n R Faux pas Thursday #36
If it's true that "everyone hates Ted Cruz," how does he stay in office? calimary Thursday #40
yeah... this "math" is trash.......... Takket Thursday #43
Kick musette_sf Thursday #48
Discrepancies between early/mail-in votes and day-of-election votes. Foolacious Thursday #51
Why this is important? Metaphorical Thursday #52
Quite simply, the polls were close anyway, but they were wrong. Statistically, that isn't that unlikely. Doodley Yesterday #54
And here is just a basic little thought. . since everything krasnov spews is niyad 21 hrs ago #56
KNR and bookmarking. I cannot take much more today. niyad 21 hrs ago #57
Ok, I've read all the parts, fairly convincing stuff...now... MiHale 21 hrs ago #58
Oooo-Weee ! ProudToronto 20 hrs ago #59
Everything just went a little too perfectly for Trump mvd 20 hrs ago #60
I've thought this since Nov. 6 2024 4catsmom 17 hrs ago #63
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