If you're confused about how the hell AI is going to make the kind of money needed to turn a profit, I'll illustrate

[Bernardo de La Paz]

7. You could have chosen any number of similar pie in the sky examples and they'd all be dreams but not selling points.

AI is not being sold on that basis.

AI is being sold on the here and now agentic basis. AI is providing agents to answer questions, agents to write a piece of code, agents to analyze some incoming data and route it to the appropriate human, agents to answer the phone, agents to summarize meetings, agents to talk to other agents.

Doing all that agentic stuff can enhance a company's profitability now. Probably. Maybe. The MIT study says few companies are actually getting a solid return from deployment yet. I think that after the coming AI winter the next AI summer will deliver those solid returns. There are plenty of ways for AI companies to make good profits with the capabilities that already exist, with the inevitable fine tuning and optimization. They don't need to be capable of project management for there to be lots of profits.

AI is real, AI is powerful, it will be tuned, it will be made more efficient, but it won't do project management this decade and probably not the next. But maybe after 2040 which is not so far away, if there are some breakthroughs on the revolutionary scale of the LLM breakthrough.

If someone tries to sell you an investment or a product based on the idea that it can, or "just in a couple of years" will, manage a large project on its own, ... find out what the company is and sell their stock short.

I know you are not saying it can do it now, but rather you are saying it is being held out as a promise of future capabilities to get investment now. But really, nobody is selling stock or products on that future premise. There are an awful lot of people who make that extrapolation on their own, which is why we have a stock market AI bubble now. But that is rather like investing in Netscape or Altavista in 1998 hoping it will become some vaguely imagined Facebook or Amazon of the future. Those two companies withered away.

Let the bubble burst and see who emerges from the wreckage. If you make a half dozen to a dozen small investments in 2027 or 8 or 9, you will likely have a big winner among them by 2040. Like how a dozen years after the 2000 bubble burst by 2012 it was pretty clear Apple, Facebook, and Amazon were going to win with the internet.