Administration signaling job losses tomorrow, blaming their own policy of mass deportation

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Aaron Rupar @atrupar
Peter Navarro: "The jobs report comes out tomorrow. We have to revise our expectations down significantly for what a monthly job number should look like ... Wall Street has to adjust for the fact that we're deporting millions of illegals out of the job market."

...do tell.

Brookings:

The downward population pressure stemming from negative net migration has important implications for the macroeconomy.

In recent years, growth in the U.S.-born working-age population has been weak, and nearly all growth in the labor force has stemmed from immigration flows. The 2022–24 immigration surge was accompanied by robust job growth, with immigrants both supplying labor and generating demand for goods and services.

Conversely, the recent slowdown in population growth has affected the level of employment growth consistent with an unchanged unemployment rate, often called “breakeven employment growth.”

We estimate that, in the second half of 2025, breakeven employment growth of 20,000 to 50,000 jobs each month was consistent with immigration flows. That number could dip into negative territory over 2026. Reduced immigration also has modest dampening effects on GDP and will weaken consumer spending by an estimated $60–$110 billion combined over the two years.

The population of immigrants not autho-
rized to be in the United States is mostly of
working age—two-thirds of them are in the
prime working ages of 25 to 54 compared to
less than 40 percent of U.S. citizens.1
• About 8 million unauthorized immigrants
are employed, which is about 5 percent of
the U.S. workforce.2
• Unauthorized immigrants make up a par-
ticularly large share of workers in several
industries, accounting for 22 percent of all
farmworkers, 15 percent of construction
workers, and 8 percent of manufacturing
workers (which includes food production
such as meatpacking).3
• Seventy-nine percent of unauthorized immi-
grants have been in the country over 10 years.

https://www.brookings.edu/articles/macroeconomic-implications-of-immigration-flows-in-2025-and-2026-january-2026-update/

Economic research has found that:
Past deportations have harmed U.S.
workers with lost jobs and lower
wages.

For example, the deporta-
tion of 454,000 immigrant workers
not authorized to be in the United
States from 2008 to 2015 reduced the
employment share of U.S.-born work-
ers by 0.5 percent and reduced their
hourly wages by 0.6 percent.

Future large-scale deportations have
been estimated to reduce the size of the
U.S. economy. Estimates of U.S. eco-
nomic loss range from 2.6 percent to
6.2 percent of Gross Domestic Product
(the most widely used measure of
national income). At 2023 levels those
equate to losses to the economy of
between $711 billion and $1.7 trillion.

Employment losses for future mass
deportation have been estimated to
be as high as 3.6 percent.

https://carsey.unh.edu › sites › default › files › media › economic-impact-mass-deportation-lit-review-1.pdf