General Discussion
In reply to the discussion: So, I'm gonna stir the pot a bit... don't be too harsh... [View all]paleotn
(22,204 posts)We're not going to see vast swaths of the populace rendered obsolete by AI.
That is when LLMs are not hallucinating and spewing bullshit. But before you say "in the future!", I've been hearing that nuclear fusion, quantum computing, and a whole host of other innovations are just 10 years away for the last 50 years.
Artificial general intelligence (AGI) and artificial super intelligence (ASI) fall into that category. That's what it would take to reproduce most if not all complex tasks trained humans do effortlessly. Due to physical limits and the laws of physics itself, both are probably as impossible as approaching even a small fraction of the speed of light. A pipe dream.
Another tool? Yes. Some productivity gains? Yes, maybe. Enough to accomplish what you're worried about? Not hardly. From a physical hardware, resource use, and economic standpoint (return on investment), it ain't happening.
You see, Moore's Law (which was never a "law" to begin with. Only an early observation of digitization. ) is dead. It ran into the laws of physics and died. See circuit miniaturization and leakage (quantum tunneling). That's why they're building ginormous data centers and not packing the technology into relatively small packages. To even TRY to do what you're afraid of would require turning much of the planet into a giant server farm. Even then, it probably will never work. Oh, and some tech bros are actually proposing POWERING their AI fever dream WITH fusion power. A pipe dream two-fer!
https://cmr.berkeley.edu/2025/10/seven-myths-about-ai-and-productivity-what-the-evidence-really-says/
https://hbr.org/2025/09/ai-generated-workslop-is-destroying-productivity
https://mitsloan.mit.edu/ideas-made-to-matter/a-new-look-economics-ai?utm_source=mitsloangooglep&utm_medium=cpc&utm_campaign=macroAI&gad_source=1&gad_campaignid=20986709924&gbraid=0AAAAABQU3hesYIdiKnQZG13GxpIojSFfz&gclid=Cj0KCQjwm6POBhCrARIsAIG58CKL7fj8hh6gQLgGvPcfhp39t0PuC7Ta1XMFmphMtadRKSXoCESxClIaAg3NEALw_wcB