He never has. The stock market may react very fast to volatile news, but most of that's noise - it's not, and has never been, all that efficient as a prediction market. We will really start to see the effects next month, as oil that's in transit runs out and we begin to eat significantly into reserves; foreign oil arrivals in the US will drop by about 20% this week as the last of what's already in transit arrives, and we will start seeing gasoline in the $8 to $10 a gallon range by the first of May. Electronics prices are now spiking (delivery of rare earths that go through Hormuz are in the same trajectory) , food prices are definitely up, and will go up considerably more. China is going to start getting more aggressive, because they have the same requirements that we do (and smaller reserves), and we could see the Chinese actively breaking up US blockade efforts. The US will likely be under Chinese tariff interdiction by summer.
The Bretton Woods accords made the dollar the US Reserve currency for oil transactions. It's dead now. This means that the world no longer has to invest in the US (treasuries, equities, land, etc.) in order to get oil. It's going to be chaotic for a while, but I expect we'll end up with a spot bucket consisting of multiple currencies determining the price of oil within a year, with the US having very little say in the matter. We're already seeing some erosion in the markets as foreign investment in the stock markets dries up and countries start liquidating their US holdings. This is going to accelerate. The crash will come by mid-summer, right before the mid-terms.
This isn't rocket science - even this ignorant bunch can run these numbers, they know what's coming, they know there's not a damn thing they can do about. Trump screwed the pooch.
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