Just trying to figure it all out

[Aepps22]

3. We Can't Be 100% Sure

Essentially all the gerrymandering does is sets a high floor for the party that the gerrymander was designed to benefit where under normal turnout scenarios and partisan voting patterns you should presumably pick up seats. In the event your voters don’t turn out, the other side turns out or your own voters vote against you, you don’t win.