If Trump Lost He Would Be In Prison Right Now

[Fiendish Thingy]

2. Highly unlikely he would be in prison by now

It’s only been 18 months, and you may have forgotten a number of things:

1) The immunity ruling meant that, before a trial for January 6 could occur, every charge Trump was indicted for would have to be adjudicated on whether the alleged acts fell within “official acts”. Every ruling on every charge would be subject to appeal, all the way to SCOTUS.

Then, once each charge was adjudicated, all the pre-trial motions, discovery, jury selection would begin, and that would take months. It’s conceivable that, at this date, a trial might just be beginning, but also quite believable that the process would still be mired in Trumpian delays and appeals.

2) in the documents case, Judge Cannon excluded all evidence and testimony gathered/presented by Jack Smith, ruling he had been appointed inappropriately/unlawfully, leaving only the evidence obtained by Garland, which was substantial (he executed the original search warrant at Mar a Lago), but would likely require a return to the grand jury to see if the would return indictments based on the evidence alone, or waiting out the appeal process on Cannon’s ruling against Smith. Once a trial was able to commence, then all the delays from pre-trial motions and appeals would unfold. Either way, it’s unlikely a trial on the documents charges would be concluded at this point.

And, in any case, if a conviction was ever obtained, Trump could remain free pending his appeal (less likely for the January 6 case, but almost certain for any charges in front of Cannon.)

I think the only thing one could say with certainty is, if he had lost in 2024, by this date Trump would still be facing serious felony charges rather than having all charges dropped or dismissed.