How Democrats Could Win a Landslide

[VBNMW_Realist]

Anything will happen, but one reason I think there is a good chance Democrats will win in a landslide is by replicating the 2018 turnout gains. This is a detail that was lost but 2018 was not as big of a blue wave as it could have been because the electorate according to studies only voted for Clinton by 3-4%, only slightly bluer than the 2016 result. So it came from swing voters as well.

The same story appears to be happening in 2026, but in a completely different path in many ways. In 2026, Democrats are poised to roll back Republicans gains with nonwhite voters because many of these additional Republican votes were not particularly ideological, and also many feel like their identity is under attack, especially nonwhite immigrants, including wealthy Asians. The Republicans are also losing the white working class, which is potentially even more devastating for them because it would roll back their gains in Iowa, Ohio, and more, possibly leading Democrats to win the Governor and Senate seats there.

One of the biggest questions of this electoral cycle is whether or not Democrats will be able to make further inroads in the suburbs. The 2 reasons I think they will is in 2024, suburbs overall barely shifted red (and actually some got bluer in swing states especially Georgia) in the presidential election, and the Virginia and New Jersey elections had suburbs voting Democratic at Biden 2020 levels in New Jersey and even higher in Virginia. NJ's suburbs are more Republican down-ballot so those results were devastating for them to see with a blue Morris County in that year for the first time in decades.