possibilities for the november elections. which is most likely?

[Fiendish Thingy]

4. So much ignorance, mythology and fearmongering

Republicans can’t “refuse to seat Dems”.

On January 3, 2027 all congressional members-elect, as certified by their respective states, convene at the Capitol and select a speaker. Since there will be more Democratic members-elect than Republicans, that speaker will also be a Dem. The new speaker then swears in the rest of the members-elect en masse.

The reiterate, Johnson will not be speaker on January 3, 2027 when the new congress convenes for the first time. On that date, there is no congress until the new speaker has sworn the members-elect in.

There is a mechanism for objecting to the seating of a member-elect at the beginning of a new congress, and there’s a reason it hasn’t been used in over 100 years: because it would result in a tit-for-tat objection against every member-elect, resulting in no member of congress being sworn in that day, except for the speaker.