Sure, the Detroit suburbs are where a lot of the votes are at and it is fairly diverse. I understand the case that Dearborn is more likely to vote for El Sayed, but Dearborn also isn’t the entire state. Once you get out of some of the more urbanized areas, the state is whiter, older and much more conservative. It is absolutely true that the last several senate and presidential races have been close.
I’m not saying El Sayed can’t do it. Obama did it twice. And I think Trump’s popularity has definitely nosedived. But Obama also didn’t call himself a socialist. Yes, I know Bernie won the primary in 2016 but that was also a primary and not the general election.
If El Sayed wins the nomination, the GOP will pour a ton into in the state. They already believe it’s their top pickup opportunity. Hopefully Trump’s unpopularity drags down those like Roger’s.
One of the keys to winning a state like Michigan is obvious — it’s not just about winning big in your stronger areas — you have to keep your losses controlled outside of the urban areas. That’s where Biden excelled in 2020 and Harris didn’t in 2024.
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