General Discussion

Emrys

(9,248 posts)

37. Given the state of Russia's stockpiles in general, even in the unlikely event Putin made such a suicidal decision,

Mon Jul 6, 2026, 07:38 PM

Jul 6

the questions are whether they could actually launch them successfully, whether they could reach their intended targets, and whether they could actually explode as intended, given that Russia's last nuclear warhead test was in 1990. I probably don't need to point out how terminally disastrous it would be for Putin if he launched a high-profile dud nuclear attack.

If anyone wants to read a more serious analysis rather than the banter under this OP, here's RAND's take:

Putin's Failed Nuclear Threats - https://www.rand.org/pubs/commentary/2025/11/putins-failed-nuclear-threats.html

And here's an analysis of Putin's nuclear mind games, at home and abroad, during the course of his war in Ukraine from the International Centre for Defence and Security:

Russia’s Nuclear Signalling Problem: Too Much Left to Chance? - https://icds.ee/en/russias-nuclear-signalling-problem-too-much-left-to-chance/

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Crunchy Frog ProfessorGAC

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Will Russia use a tactical nuke in Ukraine? [View all] SamuelTheThird Jul 6 OP

They might, Putin is a Russian version of T-rump with more power...T-rump loves and emulates the dictator... wcmagumba Jul 6 #1

Yes, they have them, and can deliver them so they might. BUT 31j20b3 Jul 6 #9

Given the state of Russia's stockpiles in general, even in the unlikely event Putin made such a suicidal decision, Emrys Jul 6 #37

Spot On ProfessorGAC Jul 7 #47

Trump would likely take it as a licence to nuke Iran. Essentially it would break the nuclear taboo and Crunchy Frog Jul 7 #45

I don't see any real evidence pointing in that direction. Torchlight Jul 6 #2

You seem to have a lot of faith in Putin's rationality SamuelTheThird Jul 6 #3

I have faith he's cold, calculating and crunches numbers Torchlight Jul 6 #5

I'd like to see you present evidence SamuelTheThird Jul 6 #6

I see a person who possesses a pattern of long-horizon strategic goals, Torchlight Jul 6 #11

incremental escalation strategy, SamuelTheThird Jul 6 #13

Seems a far cry from the prior 'rambling and ineffective' bit Torchlight Jul 6 #15

btw Woodward's book claims Putin was seriously considering using a nuke SamuelTheThird Jul 6 #16

Just wanted to point out that Ukraine never "recaptured" the city of Kharkiv because the russians Crunchy Frog Jul 7 #42

Sullivan was out of his depth, and was a significant factor in Biden and the allies' timidity and over-caution Emrys Jul 7 #46

I agree, and participated in those discussions elsewhere on the internet. Crunchy Frog Jul 7 #48

A tactical nuke presents problems for the West -misanthroptimist Jul 7 #53

I doubt it. bearsfootball516 Jul 6 #4

What makes you think a defeat in Ukraine wouldnt mean an end to his time? SamuelTheThird Jul 6 #7

Putin is just stalling for time - harumph Jul 6 #8

His hope has already dwindled to nothing if thats the case SamuelTheThird Jul 6 #10

A tactical nuke order would only speed up the loss. harumph Jul 6 #27

So, do you have any other sources for this supposition? MineralMan Jul 6 #12

Uh, what? The Video wasnt a source for my question SamuelTheThird Jul 6 #14

No Manatee Jul 6 #17

Biden administration at one point wasnt so confident SamuelTheThird Jul 6 #18

They also believed that Kyiv would fall in 3 days, the entire country within a few weeks, Crunchy Frog Jul 7 #43

Only if Taylor Swift asks them mr715 Jul 6 #19

Any thoughts on the topic at hand? SamuelTheThird Jul 6 #20

I do not think Russia will use a nuke. mr715 Jul 6 #21

Ok, that's a relief SamuelTheThird Jul 6 #22

Again, it really comes down to whether or not Taylor Swift is involved. mr715 Jul 6 #25

She has a huge PR machine working for her already, you know? SamuelTheThird Jul 6 #26

Hopefully not in the next Fortnight sarisataka Jul 6 #23

Well played, sir, take my rec. N/T Jedi Guy Jul 6 #39

Why poison the land they want to steal? GPV Jul 6 #24

You make a great point, especially when you consider that Russia's military, who will already be pushing back..... FadedMullet Jul 6 #28

Russian military who push back get pushed out of windows SamuelTheThird Jul 6 #29

OK, I'll play your silly game. Nuking Kiev "would not affect the whole country"? Really? Based on what exactly? FadedMullet Jul 6 #30

OP needs to look at a map, as Belarus would not be in a happy place. Emrys Jul 6 #32

Based on the radiation spread of a small tactical nuke SamuelTheThird Jul 7 #49

He's more likely to parachute Taylor Swift in Emrys Jul 6 #31

i intended to achieve discussion SamuelTheThird Jul 6 #35

I think you intended to get attention, as so often. But you don't seem to like it when you get it. Emrys Jul 6 #36

'And there you go again with your Swift obsession, ' SamuelTheThird Jul 7 #50

I thought you were all about her husband now. And no, this thread isn't about nukes. As ever, it's all about YOU. Emrys Jul 7 #57

Sammy the Contrarian - way too many posts here. Try to live with different opinions. And chill. FadedMullet Jul 7 #41

But you don't answer questions when asked. So you select what you want to "discuss". GP6971 Jul 7 #62

What on topic question did I not answer? SamuelTheThird Jul 8 #63

You didn't answer my same question twice... GP6971 Jul 8 #64

I'm not allowed to post there SamuelTheThird Jul 8 #66

No. QueerDuck Jul 6 #33

I give it 50/50 Bookreadingliberal53 Jul 6 #34

If they have one that works still, maybe. haele Jul 6 #38

I think he'd have already done so if he was going to. Jedi Guy Jul 6 #40

At this point... BH liberal Jul 7 #44

If the world allows that to happen without united response....it's all over. walkingman Jul 7 #51

Eventually RandySF Jul 7 #52

Why would the radiate a country they want to takeover? LogDog75 Jul 7 #54

They'd want the farmland in Ukraine, too SamuelTheThird Jul 7 #60

What kind of "mob boss" mentality are we promoting here? WSHazel Jul 7 #55

No one said -anything- about Ukraine stopping what they are doing SamuelTheThird Jul 7 #56

That's what these kinds of posts usually mean when I see them on Xitter. Crunchy Frog Jul 8 #67

Sometimes when it comes to serious issues I turn to music. BannonsLiver Jul 7 #58

LOL mr715 Jul 7 #59

Has anybody mentioned that ethnic Russians and other Russian speakers are the largest minority in Ukraine? FadedMullet Jul 7 #61

Putin cares absolutely nothing about ethnic russians Crunchy Frog Jul 8 #68

That's the most beautiful ugly thing I've seen in a long time. Maru Kitteh Jul 8 #65