He Predicted America's Crisis Sixteen Years Ago, to the Year. His Database Says It Ends Three Ways.

[jmbar2]

33. Great article

Three gauges, all climbing into the red.

1. Popular immiseration- wage growth stagnation since the '70s
2. Wealth pump
3. Elite overproduction - "society produces far more ambitious, credentialed people than it has powerful positions to give them".

History’s revolutions, his data shows, are not led by the hungry. They are led by frustrated would-be elites who harness the anger of the hungry. The men in masks on July 4th were not peasants. Neither were the leaders of any uprising in his database.

Among the societies in Turchin’s crisis database, the ones that reached the condition America is in now, the outcomes read like a coroner’s ledger. Forty percent saw their rulers assassinated. Twenty percent endured civil wars that lasted a century. Three quarters ended in revolution or civil war or both. And sixty percent of them ceased to exist entirely, dissolved from within or conquered from without. Turchin’s current description of the United States, in his clinical vocabulary, is a society in a “revolutionary situation.”

And here is the finding I need you to hold onto: the clearest case of the peaceful exit in Turchin’s entire dataset is the United States of America. The Gilded Age ran the wealth pump exactly as it runs today, complete with private armies, street bombings, and contempt between the classes. And then, across the Progressive Era and the New Deal, the pump was deliberately throttled: taxation of great fortunes, the breakup of monopolies, the legalization of unions, the great expansion of education that gave surplus elites somewhere to go. What followed was the only period in the database where inequality reversed peacefully: the postwar decades of shared prosperity. If you are over sixty, you were born inside the third ending. It is not a theory. It is your childhood.

This analysis is exactly the same as my favorite economist, Gary Stevenson. His analysis covers both the US and Britain.