Lincoln Square: Swing State Shift: Why Trump's Influence Is Fading in the Midwest Behind the Numbers

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Jul 13, 2026 #AndrewWilson #Midterms #Midwest

Are the political winds shifting in the Midwest?

Rick Wilson and Andrew Wilson examine new polling from Ohio and other key battleground states, arguing that Donald Trump's political influence may not be as strong as it once was. They break down Vivek Ramaswamy's struggles with older Ohio voters, Sherrod Brown's Senate prospects, and why recent race-rating changes suggest Democrats have more opportunities than many expected.

The discussion explores how tariffs, changing voter coalitions, and Trump's own political baggage could reshape critical Midwestern races heading into the midterms. Rick and Andrew also explain why Ohio's older electorate presents a unique challenge for Republicans and why seemingly small polling shifts could have major electoral consequences.

If the Midwest is becoming more competitive again, it could determine who controls Congress—and the direction of American politics over the next two years.

00:00 Ohio's New Polls
00:38 Vivek's Problem With Older Voters
02:21 Why Ohio's Demographics Matter
03:41 Republicans Face a Credibility Test
05:23 Sherrod Brown's Opportunity
06:12 Trump's Midwest Problem
07:08 Race Ratings Shift Toward Democrats