We Must Prepare For an AI Bubble Now

[SamuelTheThird]

(That 5 trillion by Chase is on the low end of estimates. Some firms estimate up to 11 trillion by 2030)

https://time.com/article/2026/03/26/we-must-prepare-for-an-ai-bubble-now/

Morgan Chase analysts anticipate $5 trillion of spending on AI infrastructure between now and 2030. This year alone, four tech companies—Amazon, Alphabet, Meta and Microsoft— have plans to invest $670 billion on AI infrastructure. When measured as a percentage of U.S. GDP, this is more than the Apollo space program, the U.S. interstate highway system, railroads, and every other major capital expenditure in U.S. history except the Louisiana Purchase, according to the Wall Street Journal. Yet OpenAI and Anthropic have annualized revenues of about $25 billion and $19 billion, respectively. Unless AI revenues grow by orders of magnitude soon, there’s a Grand Canyon-sized gap that will be hard to cross.

Notably, this over-investment is being funded by the public. Big Tech companies are spending their cash, using capital from equity investments, issuing record levels of corporate bonds, and leveraging private credit, junk bonds, structured finance, asset-backed securities, and more. The size of the required investment means that nearly every financial market is involved.

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Worse still, we’re seeing a rise in specific forms of financial engineering—circular financing, “off books” special purpose vehicles, huge private credit loans, and significant volumes of credit default swaps and asset-backed securities—which obscure a full understanding of the systemic risks. And, again, those mechanisms are funded, in large part, by retirees, small businesses, and others with savings, and all of us who depend on the financial system.

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Policymakers should start developing and debating proposals now to address the underlying structural problems in the AI sector that are likely to be drivers of a future crash. They need to understand and start developing reforms to address circular financing, opaque debt financing, massive (and often non-transparent) subsidies by state and local governments, and the integration and interconnections that have led to sprawling conglomerates. They need to start proposing new, imaginative ways to develop the AI-sector in a way that works for ordinary people and small businesses, like public cloud computing services and worker protections, rather than leaving the fate of American society to the AI oligarchs. They should commit in advance to robustly prosecuting fraud under federal and state criminal laws to send the signal now that illegal behavior will not be tolerated. And they need to commit to helping ordinary people, not bailing out the AI com (lol dreaming here)