General Discussion
In reply to the discussion: Gore not becoming President: whose fault? [View all]Jim Lane
(11,175 posts)The obvious question is: "If Nader had not been on the ballot, what would the people who actually voted for him have done instead?"
The three relevant categories of answers are: (1) voted for Bush; (2) voted for Gore; or (3) deprived of the opportunity to vote for Nader, found some other way to make themselves politically irrelevant.
We can ignore the last group. The issue is the comparative size of the first two groups. Every bit of data I've ever seen, including some from Nader himself IIRC, states that Group 2 would greatly outnumber Group 1. The difference between the two numbers would have represented Gore's net gain. It would have swamped the official margin for Bush in Florida. Gore would have had a cheatproof margin of victory and would have become President.
If you think that Group 1 and Group 2 are equal in size, you'll have to present some pretty powerful data to make that sense -- much more powerful than party registration.