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In reply to the discussion: US Senate passes bill with Republican support to rescind Trump's tariffs on Brazil [View all]Bluetus
(1,799 posts)One might have hoped that the bill would rescind ALL the tariffs in general. However, this may actually be a clever move. By focusing on Brazil, the Senate goes on record that there is no emergency state. Perhaps courts can use that as justification to negate all the other tariffs.
And don't be so sure it can't pass the House. It would require a discharge petition, but that is certainly possible with just a few GOP votes. The economy is showing signs of a major downturn. We are at the leading edge of what could be a big wave of layoffs. Amazon is laying off 2200 corporate people. That is not warehouse people replaced by automation. That indicates a real softening of their business. Other CEOs see that and will be scrambling to follow suit. These recessions always have a piling-on effect. When Republicans in the House see this in their own districts, we could easily see a dozen or more of them join a discharge petition. These are political animals. They can all see that Trump is imploding mentally and his approval is in the shitter. There comes a time where they decide that their best chances of keeping their seat require separation from Trump.
Even with the bill passing both houses, Trump probably vetoes it, but that will be highly visible and will cost Trump even more support. If his people are smart, they should be negotiating with Congress right now about how to pull back from the tariffs without being forced through legislation, Don't be surprised if Trump makes a trip to Brazil soon and announces a fantastic new deal with Brazil that allows him to remove the tariffs.
But let's assume this Senate bill is mirrored in the House and sent to Trump for his veto. This brings up a legal question I have no clue about. Normally the courts are supposed to operate on the basis of law. In this scenario, it would not be law because of Trump's veto. However, this is a case where the President has no inherent authority to unilaterally impose tariffs. This have to be ratified by Congress. However, Congress long ago passed some legislation that gives the President some power to impose tariffs in certain emergency situations, such as declared wars. Trump has done all these tariffs on the claim that we have such an emergency. If the House and Senate have passed bills saying there is no such emergency, can the courts use that in their decision, regardless of Trump's veto? After all, according to the Constitution, it is the Congress, not the President that has the power to declare war. Likewise it follows that the Congress (with or without Trump's veto) is the only body that can say there is NO PRESENT EMERGENCY requiring tariffs.
P.S. Next up, let's see the same GOP courage to pass a bill outlawing aid to Argentina.