Putin sends Trump's messengers packing, with eyes on a geopolitical win

[Emrys]

10. What an odd analysis

Last edited Wed Dec 3, 2025, 09:19 PM - Edit history (1)

It begins promisingly with "Vladimir Putin does not want a deal, and the sweetness of being begged to entertain one is something the Russian president relishes", which is a truth too often overlooked at the moment, points out that the conflict has far from panned out as Putin and his cronies anticipated, and even pays some lip service to the current problems and tensions within Russia and its regime.

But later (beyond the excerpt in the OP) it veers into questionable statements like "Putin is winning militarily – slowly, but undeniably – and he sees a Ukraine weak with manpower and funding issues, and in the grip of a domestic political crisis that keeps resurfacing. Zelensky is hobbled at home, power cuts and frontline casualties blighting morale, and the repeat agony of loss, diplomatic deceit and pressure, coupled with ebbing aid, lead so many to question where this story ends without a growing Russian win?"

The author, Nick Paton Walsh, is English and an experienced war correspondent, so it's strange to see him adopt such an America-centric perspective on the current machinations in terms of his excessive focus on Trump's role when he's becoming increasingly irrelevant as he withdraws support for Ukraine and its allies (most recently freezing Germany out of direct communication lines), ironically giving him less and less leverage as he taxes their patience too far and he has less to threaten to withdraw, but then Paton Walsh is writing for CCN and presumably a predominantly American market.

He skims breezily over the pressures also besetting Russia - whose main advantage is that it's not caught up in a supposedly supportive but ultimately poisonous relationship with Trump, which many of us hope will soon come to an end so those serious about tackling the conflict can get on with it without constant distractions - which is suffering very similarly to Ukraine. Russia also has mounting problems with power cuts, with the additional burden of chronic fuel shortages due to the programme of Ukrainian strikes, vast casualties on the front lines way beyond anything Ukraine is suffering, and the war is finally coming home to the extent where it's affecting ordinary Russians in their everyday lives, and they're not enjoying it. Putin probably doesn't have the luxury of as much time as he and Paton Walsh assume he does.

To balance Paton Walsh's perspective, here's something to throw into the mix from a Ukrainian perspective a day or so ago:

Frontline report: Russian officers privately admit war has reached ‘strategic deadlock’ maintained only by Putin’s stubbornness

... the Russian political leadership is claiming confidently that Russia will continue the war until it achieves all the goals it has set out at the start of the war.

However, the latest poll results shocked them, because as it turns out, the Russian population has had enough of the so-called special military operation and wants the war to end now.

Recently, an internal survey prepared for regional Russian administrations ahead of the 2026 elections shows 83% of Russians feel fatigued from the war, and 56% want it to end right away, a sharp rise from the previous year. Support for continuing hostilities has fallen to around 23 percent, even as the Kremlin insists publicly that national unity remains strong.
...
Senior officers privately acknowledge strategic deadlock

Shockingly, the sentiment is changing even within the military, as communications among dozens of senior Russian officers reveal what many suspected: a growing belief that the war has reached a political and strategic deadlock, maintained only by Putin's personal stubbornness.
...
Some high-ranking officers quietly admit they would prefer the war to stop, simply to avoid wasting more soldiers' lives, yet none will directly challenge a system that rewards their obedience and punishes honesty.
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Military analysts question whether objectives are achievable

Several prominent Russian military analysts have also begun to push for the peace settlement because they understood that Russia cannot achieve the objectives it set at the start of the invasion, as the army has lost too many men to sustain the current pace for the several more years needed to conquer the remaining territories.

Despite recent claims of rapid advances, progress is fast only compared to the crawling pace of the last 3 and a half years.

An army that once marched with new tanks and modern infantry fighting vehicles now advances with motorcycles, improvised Frankenstein trucks, civilian cars stripped of doors, and small infantry squads used as expendables.

https://euromaidanpress.com/2025/12/02/frontline-report-2025-11-30/

I can anticipate some responding that this is Ukrainian propaganda - which is true in that it's information presented in a partisan fashion - but then by that measure, so is the CNN article, for all its pretence at objectivity. The survey referred to is real and has been reported elsewhere.

For further balance, I'll refer to the UK Express - very much right-of-centre and not usually a place I'd look for incisive journalism, but for some reason Western outlets have been too caught up in Trump's constant clickbait drama and framing of the conflict to bother to report this, and it cuts across Paton Walsh's narrative:

Putin on the brink as bombshell poll reveals support for Ukraine war collapsing

A majority of Russians want an immediate end to the war in Ukraine, a new bombshell poll has revealed. It comes as Vladimir Putin met with Steve Witkoff on Tuesday to try and thrash out a peace deal.
...
A poll was recently carried out for the regional Russian administrations ahead of the 2026 elections.

The result of the survey has reportedly shocked officials, as public support for Putin's war has plummeted. The poll shows 83% of Russians feel fatigued from the war, and 56% want it to end right away, a sharp rise from the previous year.

Support for continuing hostilities has fallen to around 23%, even as the Kremlin insists publicly that national unity remains strong.

https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/2141893/putin-ukraine-war-poll-russia-elections-2026

The survey referred to is in line with trends from previous polls, which have shown a steady, and now sharp, decline in enthusiasm among Russians for continuing the war since the heady highs of early 2022.