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mathematic

(1,602 posts)
18. This has been a hard year for econ statistics due to massive policy changes.
Tue Dec 23, 2025, 11:32 AM
Yesterday

Tariffs, kicking out so many immigrants we might actually get workforce population declines, the 45 day shutdown, and of course, the downsizing of the departments that actually produce these reports have all contributed to increased uncertainty and variability in the data.

That said, people are terrible at identifying when we're in a recession. There are people everywhere that say we're in a recession whenever the party they voted for doesn't hold the Presidency. There are permabears that have called "15 of the last 2 recessions". There are people on DU that have said we've been in a recession for most of the last 25 years. There are mainstream economic commentators and forecasters that insisted we were going to enter a recession for some reason or another. (The Sahm rule in '24. The laughable contention that the Fed was raising rates "too fast" in '22. And so on.) Nevertheless, the US economy, which is bigger than any one man, keeps on.

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Cooked data? sop Yesterday #1
Any reason to believe Trump wouldn't lie to make himself look better? highplainsdem Yesterday #7
Perish the thought. Hugin Yesterday #8
When has he NOT cooked the books? Hieronymus Phact Yesterday #20
This happens when we never get the real data FakeNoose Yesterday #2
Anybody believe that? sinkingfeeling Yesterday #3
Hell no.................. Lovie777 Yesterday #4
Nope LoisB Yesterday #13
you know bdamomma Yesterday #14
Nope Rebl2 Yesterday #15
Let's see.... OldBaldy1701E 20 hrs ago #36
How much of this is based on higher cost due to tariffs? DemMedic Yesterday #5
Much (maybe most) of personal consumption was for Healthcare underpants Yesterday #26
Very disturbing fujiyamasan 6 hrs ago #38
On the one hand, I don't want the economy to collapse, True Dough Yesterday #6
Trump fired the Commissioner of BLS because he didn't like the numbers. djacq Yesterday #9
I believe we are in a full recession. Main Street is hurting! OrlandoDem2 Yesterday #10
I heard Rebl2 Yesterday #17
And what effect did this have on prices or consumer sentiment? mwb970 Yesterday #11
Okun's law--not really a law but informative--would suggest this number is not accurate, but there are caveats. Ol Janx Spirit Yesterday #12
don't believe it Nigrum Cattus Yesterday #16
This has been a hard year for econ statistics due to massive policy changes. mathematic Yesterday #18
And when the real numbers are finally released the sudden drop off will be blamed on Democrats. groundloop Yesterday #19
Bullshit. SamKnause Yesterday #21
Hardy Har Har tavernier Yesterday #22
Consumer confidence (Conference Board) went down again, it was reported today progree Yesterday #23
I smell some B$ over in the Trump Barn IbogaProject Yesterday #24
Reuters on Q3 GDP - progree Yesterday #25
I think it's the October one. The shutdown delayed a lot of reports / data collection. Calista241 Yesterday #27
I think the number is bogus. OLDMDDEM Yesterday #28
LOL LOL LOL bucolic_frolic Yesterday #29
It seems to me that there are too separate issues here, and that we shouldn't conflate them. markodochartaigh Yesterday #30
My wallet says it didn't grow 4.3%, not for me at least. OC375 Yesterday #31
Did CNBC fact check this stuff you know go over to the BLS to see what they have to say......... turbinetree Yesterday #32
Fake stats Ritabert Yesterday #33
Data are legit but extremely misleading (and almost certainly skewed because of the shutdown) Wiz Imp 23 hrs ago #34
I do not trust any numbers from the trump assholes LetMyPeopleVote 20 hrs ago #35
chocolate rations are up! SonOfNebanaube 19 hrs ago #37
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