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In reply to the discussion: Trump's Commerce Secretary Claims 'All' Americans 'Are Going To Earn 4.3% More Money' Because the Economy Grew by 4.3% [View all]progree
(12,724 posts)I thought the above was the nuttiest thing I read today, but Lunatic saying "all of us are going to earn 4.3% more money." beats that.
First the commentators on the GDP report have pretty much all pointed out the K-shaped economy -- the higher income people are doing well with the stock market gains and spending plentifully, while the rest of us are struggling with higher prices and rising unemployment.
That phenomenon (K-shaped economy) also is playing out among businesses. Economists said large corporations have mostly managed to withstand the blow from the import duties, which have increased costs, and are investing in artificial intelligence. (Investment outlays helps the GDP number whether or not they are prudent). But smaller businesses are struggling with tariffs.
It's also special factors like higher federal spending (including buyout offers to federal workers) and higher defense spending. Also elevated electric vehicle spending in advance of the ending of EV tax credits on Sept 30.
The GDP report also covers the period July 1 - September 30 - just *BEFORE* the government shutdown. So the report doesn't cover the shutdown (which began October 1) or all the bad news we heard in October or November or December so far -- that will hit the 4th quarter report coming out in late January.
Reuters: The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office has estimated the shutdown could slice between 1.0 percentage point and 2.0 percentage points off GDP in the fourth quarter.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-economic-growth-accelerates-third-133710066.html
And the 4th quarter ends in a week. Then it will be challenging economically going forward with extended ACA supplements expiring in a week.
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There will be another estimate of Q3 GDP coming out January 22, so yesterday's report isn't the final word.
https://www.bea.gov/news/2025/gross-domestic-product-3rd-quarter-2025-initial-estimate-and-corporate-profits
BEA's schedule of news releases show no further 3rd quarter GDP reports other than the January 22 one.
https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule
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More on the Trump thing --
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/fed-chair-lower-rates-market-183423701.html
No paywall on this Yahoo - hosted article
I want my new Fed Chairman to lower Interest Rates if the Market is doing well, not destroy the Market for no reason whatsoever, Trump said in a social media post Tuesday. Anybody that disagrees with me will never be the Fed Chairman!
In the old days, when there was good news, the Market went up, Trump wrote. Nowadays, when there is good news, the Market goes down, because everybody thinks that Interest Rates will be immediately lifted to take care of potential Inflation.
Nobody except you and maybe Besserk and Lunatick (the secretaries of the Treasury and Commerce departments respectively)
Fact check about the last sentence in the excerpt: There have been no rate increases in 2025, instead there have been 3 rate cuts, beginning with the one 9/17.
And there have been 4 rate cuts in the latter half of 2024, including one that was 0.50% instead of the usual 0.25%.
There have been no rate increases since July 2023, 2 1/2 years ago.
And the market has been hardly "destroyed" by "TOO LATE POWELL" - the S&P 500 hit a new all-time-high today.
https://www.democraticunderground.com/111699775