Israel announces major expansion of settlements in occupied West Bank

[Beastly Boy]

5. Sorry to intrude, but I just came across a rare sight on DU: a legitimate discussuion of the two state solution.

Something I couldn't resist. I promise, this time I am offering my two cents' worth in good faith.

I am far more optimistic about the two-state solution than the present company. First, to paraphrase Churchill, a two state solution is the worst possible one, with the exception of all others. Regardless of details, a single state for all of the former mandatory Palestine would inevitably create an unstable powder keg of a state ready to explode (or implode) at any time like Syria did recently. This would not be a matter of "if" but "when", and it will result in unimaginable chaos all across the region, not just Palestine, and would result, as the best case scenario, in two or more states anyway.

So the only, or the most practical solution is two states. I am more optimistic now than ever in the feasibility of it taking shape: I am looking at the situation from a regional perspective rather than a strictly Israel/Palestine issue. With the decisive defeat of Iran's proxies in Lebanon, Syria and Gaza, there is a massive geopolitical shift towards recognition of and reconciliation with Israel among Arab states. This brings unprecedented benefits to Israel, along with commensurate political leverage on the part of the Arab states to pressure Israel towards a rapid negotiated two-state solution.

The issue then becomes that of Palestinian sovereignty. As things stand now, the Palestinian Authority has no territories to call their own and no means of unilaterally taking charge of any. This deprives Palestinians of all the legal benefits that the status of a sovereign state affords in the international arena. It doesn't take much territory or even internal stability (more on that later) to gain that status. Just ask the neighboring Lebanon or Cyprus. A negotiated settlement for any territory, no matter how small, will elevate the status of the Palestinians in all further negotiations far beyond mere concept of a state. What prevents PA, the legitimate representative of all Palestinians, from moving forward with such negotiations has less to do to do with hard-line right wingers in Israel than it does with internal hostilities within the Palestinian society. The Gaza experiment of 2005, when Israel ended all traces of its presence there (and which, incidentally, demonstrated Israel's readiness, by a Likud government no less, to dismantle illegal settlements) , didn't fail because of Israel's territorial ambitions. it failed because of the struggle that ensued between the armed forces of various Palestinian factions. The outcome of this struggle, and not Trump's self-aggrandizing fantasies of luxury hotels, is what keeps the war going. And of course, this struggle and not the Israel/Hamas war are the mirror image of the regional centuries-old conflict between Iran's Shiite and Saudi Sunni factions for dominance. This, and not the equally baseless allusions to genocide and ethnic cleansing, is why Hamas and PIJ need to be rooted out of Gaza.

But I digress. I think my assumptions for the changes in the political climate both within Israel and its currently occupied territories are very reasonable and promising, if not concrete. In any event, all possible scenarios in ending the Israel/Palestine standoff eventually lead to the same outcome: two (or more) states, but at a far higher cost than a negotiated two-state settlement at the earliest possible time. The conditions for allowing such negotiations to take place are improving, and not disappearing.

Call me an optimist. A pragmatic, emotionally disciplined and impervious to peer pressure optimist. If you dare.