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Richard Charnin

(69 posts)
26. Have you actually read the math proof?
Sun Dec 18, 2011, 11:35 PM
Dec 2011

Apparently, you either have not read it or fail to comprehend it.

I will repeat the basic problem for you.
Its really very simple.

Given:
a group of X individuals

Determine:
the probability that at least n of the X in the group would die UNNATURAL deaths in the same year.

Problem:
Determine the probability that any individual would an UNNATURAL death (i.e. gunshot, karate chop, airplane crash, automobile crash, etc.) in any given year.

Probability of an UNNATURAL death in 1 year
suicide….. 0.000107
homicide…. 0.000062
accidental.. 0.000359
undetermined 0.000014

Total probability= 0.000542

Solution:
You have a group of X =1400 persons
p = .000542 = PROBABILITY of of an UNNATURAL death in any given year.

Therefore, the expected number (a) of UNNATURAL deaths in a group of 1400 is equal to the probability of an unnatural death times the number of witnesses:

a = 0.7588 = p*N = 000542*1400
In other words, we can expect that 0.7588 (one) person out of 1400 would die UNNATURALLY IN ANY GIVEN YEAR.

The probability that m=15 of 1400 in a group would die UNNATURALLY in a given year is calculated using the Poisson probability function:
P (m) = a^m * exp (-a) / m!

Plugging into the formula:
P(15) = 0.7588^15* exp (-.7588)/15!

Now, you do the math.

Note: The London Times failed to analyze the probability of UNNATURAL DEATHS.
They did not correctly specify the problem.

It is not the number of deaths that needs to be modeled.
It's the number of UNNATURAL deaths that must be considered.

Ok, now do the math... or forever stick with the no-conspiracy theory that Oswald, the lone nut gunman, did it. But if Lee Harvey did it, then you would not have all those UNNATURAL DEATHS, now would you?

Recommendations

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are there links anywhere for each person with the cause of death of each person? n/t maddezmom Dec 2011 #1
Try google Richard Charnin Dec 2011 #3
you've seem to come up with a conclusion...don't you have links or a maddezmom Dec 2011 #5
The link is provided in the source.. Richard Charnin Dec 2011 #6
my link gave the causes of death n/t zappaman Dec 2011 #7
of course you wouldn't want anyone to see what the london sunday times actually admitted zappaman Dec 2011 #9
what are the odds that this debunked crap has been floating around for almost 50 years? zappaman Dec 2011 #2
Challenge: Try to refute a) the data and b) the math Richard Charnin Dec 2011 #4
yeah right... zappaman Dec 2011 #8
Still wating for a response the the challenge. Richard Charnin Dec 2011 #13
We've been refuting the causes of "witness" deaths down below. Bolo Boffin Dec 2011 #30
This doesn't raise any questions, or red flags, from you? Ghost in the Machine Dec 2011 #32
"defend himself" about what? OnTheOtherHand Dec 2011 #33
How about "confirm or refute this story"? Ghost in the Machine Dec 2011 #35
yes, it does -- but it still doesn't seem very relevant OnTheOtherHand Dec 2011 #36
Actually, the odds against them having been born are greater jberryhill Dec 2011 #12
Very funny..but does not address the specific problem... Richard Charnin Dec 2011 #14
Yes it does jberryhill Dec 2011 #16
Have you actually read the math proof? Richard Charnin Dec 2011 #26
Why is it unnatural for people to die in automobile accidents? Bolo Boffin Dec 2011 #27
I won't even bother to respond to that. Richard Charnin Dec 2011 #28
How about the bigger question? Unnatural but innocuous, why do they count? n/t Bolo Boffin Dec 2011 #29
well... OnTheOtherHand Dec 2011 #34
Eddy Benavides was shot in February 1965, not 1964. Bolo Boffin Dec 2011 #10
Heart attacks are not "dying unnaturally." And why do you get the Unknown? Bolo Boffin Dec 2011 #11
Ok, two heart attacks and one unknown. That leaves 12. Here are the odds. Richard Charnin Dec 2011 #15
How was Teresa Norton a "witness"? zappaman Dec 2011 #18
How is DeLesseps Morrison, who was a mayor of New Orleans a "witness"? zappaman Dec 2011 #19
Odds of a meteor landing on your house: 182,138,880,000,000 to 1 zappaman Dec 2011 #20
Nope, 11. Eddy (as I noted above) is in February 1965, not 1964. Bolo Boffin Dec 2011 #23
How was Hugh Ward a "witness"? zappaman Dec 2011 #17
Nitpicking. They were related deaths... Richard Charnin Dec 2011 #21
Enlighten me how a mayor of New Orleans is connected to the JFK case zappaman Dec 2011 #22
Were all employees of Jack Ruby fatally shot? n/t Bolo Boffin Dec 2011 #24
you say gary underhill was a CIA agent zappaman Dec 2011 #25
Jesus, not this stuff again......read Case Closed by Gerald Posner Logical Dec 2011 #31
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